Japan vs Brazil
Match result probability Model pick: Japan win
Japan winPick
47.2%
Draw
25.7%
Brazil win
27.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.8%
No50.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%
How much we know
Japan history19 matches
Brazil history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Japan
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Japan are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,583 against 1,560. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Brazil score more
2.00 goals a game over 19 matches for Japan, against 2.29 over 17 for Brazil.
-
Japan concede fewer
Japan concede 0.58 a game, Brazil 1.12.
-
Brazil games more often go over 2.5 goals
42% of Japan matches, against 76% for Brazil. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 6 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1583.0
ELO
1560.4
19
ELO · Matches
17
1583.0
Current Team ELO
1560.4
1560.4
Current Opponent ELO
1583.0
22.65
Current ELO Difference
-22.65
0.53
Expected score
0.47
19
History Matches
17
0.23
Residual Mean
0.23
61.27
Overperformance
60.40
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.00
1.90
Goals for per game
2.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
19
Matches
17
2.16
PPG
2.06
63.2%
Win rate
64.7%
26.3%
Draw rate
11.8%
10.5%
Loss rate
23.5%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
76.5%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals 100
11
Matches
4
2.45
PPG
1.50
72.7%
Win rate
50.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.16
11
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.00
Goals for per game
2.29
84.2%
Scoring rate
100.0%
31.6%
BTTS rate
64.7%
2.55
Goals for per game
2.75
90.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
36.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
19
History Matches
17
2.00
Goals Mean
2.29
1.72
Goals Std
1.40
84.2%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
52.6%
Scored 2+ rate
64.7%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
35.3%
2.55
Venue Goals Mean
2.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.58
Goals against per game
1.12
36.8%
Conceding rate
64.7%
0.55
Goals against per game
1.75
36.4%
Conceding rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
19
History Matches
17
0.58
Conceded Mean
1.12
0.82
Conceded Std
1.13
21.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
0.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
63.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
63.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
19
History Matches
17
0.80
Result entropy
0.80
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.01
20.03
Stability score
20.45
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
19
Eligible Matches
17
9
Lead Matches
9
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.89
1
Trailing Matches
3
100.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
1.24
0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
137.7
Rest days
131.6
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
9
Normal Rest History Matches
10
2.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
8
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
2.25
100.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
3
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.21
1.75
Portability PPG Range
0.50
42.03
Portability Score
70.69
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
19
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO22.65
PPG0.10
GF-0.29
GA-0.54
PPG0.75
PPG0.95
PPG-0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate27.9%
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Failed-to-score rate9.1%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.54
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-0.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate66.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.48
Portability PPG Range1.25
Portability Score-28.66
Rest days6.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Current Team ELO22.65
Current Opponent ELO-22.65
Current ELO Difference45.31
Expected score0.07
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Japan and Brazil meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:15 UTC. The match is played at National Stadium, Kallang. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Japan win 47.2%, draw 25.7%, Brazil win 27.1%. The pick is Japan win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.