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Friendlies World Friendly International 2026

England U18 vs Norway U19

England U18 Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Norway U19 Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: England U18 win
England U18 winPick
50.3%
Draw
19.4%
Norway U19 win
30.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.2%
Under 2.532.8%

How much we know

England U18 history2 matches
Norway U19 history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why England U18 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,523 against 1,504. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • England U18 score far more

    4.00 goals a game over 2 matches for England U18, against 2.00 over 16 for Norway U19.

  • England U18 concede fewer

    England U18 concede 1.00 a game, Norway U19 1.38.

  • England U18 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of England U18 matches, against 75% for Norway U19. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
England U18
Norway U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.7
ELO
1503.6
2
ELO · Matches
16
1522.7
Current Team ELO
1503.6
1503.6
Current Opponent ELO
1522.7
19.12
Current ELO Difference
-19.12
0.53
Expected score
0.47
2
History Matches
16
0.47
Residual Mean
0.03
54.31
Overperformance
51.53
0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
4.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
1.40
4.00
Goals for per game
2.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
4.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
16
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
43.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
0
Matches
6
—
PPG
0.67
—
Win rate
16.7%
—
Draw rate
16.7%
—
Loss rate
66.7%
—
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
—
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
0
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
4.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
81.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
66.7%
—
BTTS rate
66.7%
4.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2
History Matches
16
4.00
Goals Mean
2.00
2.00
Goals Std
1.58
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.38
100.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
—
Goals against per game
1.67
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
16
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.38
0.00
Conceded Std
0.78
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.3%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
16
0.00
Result entropy
0.95
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.00
100.0
Stability score
5.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
16
1
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
20.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
1.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
2.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.31
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
166.9
Rest days
159.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
5
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
1
Normal Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
0
Long Rest History Matches
6
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
2
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
1
Competition Season Count
5
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.99
—
Portability PPG Range
2.67
—
Portability Score
33.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateVenue Goals MeanVenue Conceded MeanNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.12
PPG1.50
GF2.00
GA-0.38
PPG1.00
PPG1.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-6
History Matches-14
Goals Mean2.00
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate18.8%
Scored 2+ rate37.5%
Scored 3+ rate25.0%
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.78
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate-0.56
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.80
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.95
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score94.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean1.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days7.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.50
Long Rest History Matches-6
Current Team ELO19.12
Current Opponent ELO-19.12
Current ELO Difference38.24
Expected score0.05
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.44
Overperformance2.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.46

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

England U18

No earlier results with our pick yet

Norway U19

D
Belgium U180–0Norway U196 Oct · away
Pick: Norway U19 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

England U18 and Norway U19 meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: England U18 win 50.3%, draw 19.4%, Norway U19 win 30.3%. The pick is England U18 win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.2%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.