Turkey U18 vs Germany U18
Match result probability Model pick: Turkey U18 win
Turkey U18 winPick
42.7%
Draw
27.2%
Germany U18 win
30.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.6%
No49.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.8%
Under 2.551.2%
How much we know
Turkey U18 history5 matches
Germany U18 history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Turkey U18
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 08:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 09:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Turkey U18 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,496 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Germany U18 score more
1.00 goals a game over 5 matches for Turkey U18, against 1.25 over 4 for Germany U18.
-
Germany U18 concede fewer
Turkey U18 concede 1.80 a game, Germany U18 1.00.
-
Turkey U18 games more often go over 2.5 goals
80% of Turkey U18 matches, against 50% for Germany U18. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Germany U18@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1495.7
ELO
1503.5
5
ELO · Matches
4
1495.7
Current Team ELO
1503.5
1503.5
Current Opponent ELO
1495.7
-7.74
Current ELO Difference
7.74
0.49
Expected score
0.51
5
History Matches
4
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
48.04
Overperformance
49.95
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
5
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.25
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.43
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals 90
5
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
1
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
5
History Matches
4
1.00
Goals Mean
1.25
0.63
Goals Std
0.43
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
5
History Matches
4
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.17
Conceded Std
1.00
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
5
History Matches
4
0.61
Result entropy
0.63
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.30
38.74
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
5
Eligible Matches
4
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.00
3
Trailing Matches
1
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
5
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
1.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Normal Rest Points Per Match
160.7
Rest days
171.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
2
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
5
Matches
1
1.20
PPG
0.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
5
Current Competition Matches
1
1.20
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
5
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-7.74
PPG-0.30
GF-0.25
GA0.80
PPG1.20
PPG2.00
PPG-0.30
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.80
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Conceded 2+ rate10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate40.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score1.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches4
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-11.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.50
Current Team ELO-7.74
Current Opponent ELO7.74
Current ELO Difference-15.48
Expected score-0.02
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-1.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Turkey U18
L
Portugal U183–2Turkey U185 Oct · away
Pick: Portugal U18 67% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Germany U18
No earlier results with our pick yet
About this match
Turkey U18 and Germany U18 meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Turkey U18 win 42.7%, draw 27.2%, Germany U18 win 30.1%. The pick is Turkey U18 win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.8%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.