ScoreProb
Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Katwijk vs GVVV Veenendaal

Katwijk Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
GVVV Veenendaal Away · Elo 1,482
Sportpark De Krom, Katwijk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Katwijk win
Katwijk winPick
59.1%
Draw
18.6%
GVVV Veenendaal win
22.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.1%
No36.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.6%
Under 2.530.4%

How much we know

Katwijk history57 matches
GVVV Veenendaal history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Katwijk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Katwijk are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,522 against 1,482. On rating alone Katwijk would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.60 goals a game over 57 matches for Katwijk, against 1.65 over 60 for GVVV Veenendaal.

  • Katwijk concede fewer

    Katwijk concede 1.65 a game, GVVV Veenendaal 1.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Katwijk matches, against 72% for GVVV Veenendaal. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Katwijk
GVVV Veenendaal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.9
ELO
1481.6
57
ELO · Matches
60
1521.9
Current Team ELO
1481.6
1481.6
Current Opponent ELO
1521.9
40.32
Current ELO Difference
-40.32
0.56
Expected score
0.44
57
History Matches
60
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.09
Overperformance
48.65
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.90
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.72
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.90
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
60
1.35
PPG
1.35
36.8%
Win rate
40.0%
24.6%
Draw rate
15.0%
38.6%
Loss rate
45.0%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.7%
38.6%
Over 3.5 rate
43.3%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
31
1.35
PPG
1.16
38.7%
Win rate
35.5%
19.4%
Draw rate
9.7%
41.9%
Loss rate
54.8%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.5%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
31
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.65
77.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
64.9%
BTTS rate
65.0%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.39
80.6%
Scoring rate
74.2%
67.7%
BTTS rate
51.6%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
60
1.60
Goals Mean
1.65
1.20
Goals Std
1.28
77.2%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
50.9%
Scored 2+ rate
48.3%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.97
82.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.65
Goals against per game
2.13
83.9%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
60
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.97
1.22
Conceded Std
1.57
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.0%
22.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.0%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
60
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.75
Goal Difference Std
2.19
1.68
Stability score
8.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
59
15
Lead Matches
18
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.87
20
Trailing Matches
21
35.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
27
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.03
Portability PPG Range
1.29
51.90
Portability Score
50.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO40.32
PPG0.00
GF-0.05
GA-0.32
PPG0.50
PPG0.19
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate2.5%
Scored 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.85
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-6.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate20.7%
Trailing Win Rate20.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score1.72
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO40.32
Current Opponent ELO-40.32
Current ELO Difference80.64
Expected score0.12
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Katwijk

W
Kloetinge1–3Katwijk24 Oct · away
Pick: Kloetinge 57% · missed
L
Katwijk1–2Ijsselmeervogels17 Oct · home
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 39% · hit
W
Barendrecht0–2Katwijk29 Aug · away
Pick: Barendrecht 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

GVVV Veenendaal

W
GVVV Veenendaal3–0Noordwijk29 Oct · home
Pick: GVVV Veenendaal 47% · hit
W
GVVV Veenendaal2–0Koninklijke HFC24 Oct · home
Pick: GVVV Veenendaal 43% · hit
L
HHC2–1GVVV Veenendaal17 Oct · away
Pick: HHC 63% · hit
L
Kozakken Boys3–2GVVV Veenendaal29 Aug · away
Pick: Kozakken Boys 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Katwijk and GVVV Veenendaal meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark De Krom, Katwijk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Katwijk win 59.1%, draw 18.6%, GVVV Veenendaal win 22.3%. The pick is Katwijk win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.6%. Both teams to score: 63.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.