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III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 17 2026

Kluczbork vs Carina Gubin

Kluczbork Home · Elo 1,546
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Carina Gubin Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kluczbork win
Kluczbork winPick
53.2%
Draw
21.7%
Carina Gubin win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

How much we know

Kluczbork history62 matches
Carina Gubin history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Kluczbork are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kluczbork are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,505. On rating alone Kluczbork would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Kluczbork score more

    2.03 goals a game over 62 matches for Kluczbork, against 1.46 over 63 for Carina Gubin.

  • Kluczbork concede fewer

    Kluczbork concede 1.11 a game, Carina Gubin 1.52.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Kluczbork matches, against 60% for Carina Gubin. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kluczbork
Carina Gubin@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.3
ELO
1505.2
62
ELO · Matches
63
1546.3
Current Team ELO
1505.2
1505.2
Current Opponent ELO
1546.3
41.06
Current ELO Difference
-41.06
0.56
Expected score
0.44
62
History Matches
63
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.66
Overperformance
49.30
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.09
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
63
1.73
PPG
1.37
53.2%
Win rate
34.9%
12.9%
Draw rate
31.7%
33.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.3%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
36
2.03
PPG
1.33
61.3%
Win rate
33.3%
19.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
19.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
31
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.03
Goals for per game
1.46
82.3%
Scoring rate
82.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
65.1%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.58
90.3%
Scoring rate
80.6%
51.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
62
History Matches
63
2.03
Goals Mean
1.46
1.62
Goals Std
1.08
82.3%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
53.2%
Scored 2+ rate
41.3%
37.1%
Scored 3+ rate
17.5%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.52
67.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.72
61.3%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
63
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.11
Conceded Std
1.38
25.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.3%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.0%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
17.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
17.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
63
0.88
Result entropy
1.00
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.82
12.02
Stability score
0.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
62
19
Lead Matches
18
94.7%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.69
13
Trailing Matches
14
38.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.30
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.98
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
33
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.60
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.83
49.13
Portability Score
62.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO41.06
PPG0.36
GF0.57
GA-0.41
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.3%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.53
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate12.0%
Scored 3+ rate19.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.22
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score11.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate33.6%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate9.9%
Trailing Win Rate15.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-13.40
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO41.06
Current Opponent ELO-41.06
Current ELO Difference82.12
Expected score0.12
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kluczbork

W
ROW Rybnik1–2Kluczbork7 Nov · away
Pick: ROW Rybnik 44% · missed
D
Rakow II0–0Kluczbork4 Nov · away
Pick: Kluczbork 52% · missed
D
Kluczbork2–2Karkonosze Jelenia Góra30 Oct · home
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 40% · missed
W
Warta Gorzów0–2Kluczbork24 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Gorzów 45% · missed
W
Kluczbork2–0Miedź Legnica II17 Oct · home
Pick: Kluczbork 53% · hit

Carina Gubin

D
Polonia Nysa0–0Carina Gubin31 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Nysa 43% · missed
L
Carina Gubin1–3Sparta Katowice24 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Katowice 45% · hit
W
Ślęza Wrocław1–3Carina Gubin17 Oct · away
Pick: Ślęza Wrocław 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kluczbork and Carina Gubin meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kluczbork win 53.2%, draw 21.7%, Carina Gubin win 25.2%. The pick is Kluczbork win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.