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III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 17 2026

Miedź Legnica II vs ROW Rybnik

Miedź Legnica II Home · Elo 1,540
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
ROW Rybnik Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Miedź Legnica II win
Miedź Legnica II winPick
53.0%
Draw
13.7%
ROW Rybnik win
33.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.582.0%
Under 2.518.0%

How much we know

Miedź Legnica II history61 matches
ROW Rybnik history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Miedź Legnica II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Miedź Legnica II are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,505. On rating alone Miedź Legnica II would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • ROW Rybnik score far more

    2.07 goals a game over 61 matches for Miedź Legnica II, against 3.25 over 8 for ROW Rybnik.

  • Miedź Legnica II concede fewer

    Miedź Legnica II concede 1.67 a game, ROW Rybnik 1.88.

  • ROW Rybnik games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Miedź Legnica II matches, against 88% for ROW Rybnik. The model puts this match at 82% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Miedź Legnica II
ROW Rybnik@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.3
ELO
1505.3
61
ELO · Matches
8
1540.3
Current Team ELO
1505.3
1505.3
Current Opponent ELO
1540.3
34.91
Current ELO Difference
-34.91
0.55
Expected score
0.45
61
History Matches
8
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
52.34
Overperformance
51.59
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
8
1.60
PPG
1.63
2.00
Goals for per game
3.25
1.70
Goals against per game
1.88
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.25
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.49
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.88
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.89
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
8
1.54
PPG
1.63
45.9%
Win rate
50.0%
16.4%
Draw rate
12.5%
37.7%
Loss rate
37.5%
86.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
75.4%
Over 2.5 rate
87.5%
54.1%
Over 3.5 rate
87.5%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
3
1.73
PPG
0.33
53.3%
Win rate
0.0%
13.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
56.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
30
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.07
Goals for per game
3.25
86.9%
Scoring rate
75.0%
70.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.53
Goals for per game
1.00
90.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
70.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
61
History Matches
8
2.07
Goals Mean
3.25
1.64
Goals Std
2.49
86.9%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
59.0%
Scored 2+ rate
75.0%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
62.5%
2.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.88
82.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.67
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
61
History Matches
8
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.88
1.24
Conceded Std
1.76
47.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
29.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.5%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
2.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
8
0.93
Result entropy
0.89
2.16
Goal Difference Std
3.81
7.01
Stability score
11.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
7
20
Lead Matches
3
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.78
18
Trailing Matches
1
27.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
1.43
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
2.29
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
33
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
0.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.19
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.90
Portability PPG Std
—
2.37
Portability PPG Range
—
35.62
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.91
PPG-0.08
GF-1.18
GA-0.20
PPG-1.60
PPG1.40
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.03
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches53
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.57
History Matches53
Goals Mean-1.18
Goals Std-0.85
Scored 1+ rate11.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Goals Mean1.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.39
History Matches53
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.53
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-1.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches53
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-1.65
Stability score-4.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.62
Eligible Matches52
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate18.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate27.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches52
First Half Goals For Mean-0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Normal Rest History Matches33
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO34.91
Current Opponent ELO-34.91
Current ELO Difference69.83
Expected score0.10
History Matches53
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance0.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Miedź Legnica II

W
Miedź Legnica II6–0Warta Gorzów30 Oct · home
Pick: Miedź Legnica II 45% · hit
L
Zaglebie Sosnowiec3–1Miedź Legnica II23 Oct · away
Pick: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 59% · hit
L
Kluczbork2–0Miedź Legnica II17 Oct · away
Pick: Kluczbork 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

ROW Rybnik

L
ROW Rybnik1–2Kluczbork7 Nov · home
Pick: ROW Rybnik 44% · missed
W
Rakow II1–3ROW Rybnik30 Oct · away
Pick: ROW Rybnik 55% · hit
W
ROW Rybnik3–0Polonia Nysa24 Oct · home
Pick: ROW Rybnik 56% · hit
L
Sparta Katowice2–0ROW Rybnik17 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Katowice 61% · hit
L
ROW Rybnik1–3Górnik Polkowice29 Aug · home
Pick: ROW Rybnik 43% · missed

About this match

Miedź Legnica II and ROW Rybnik meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Miedź Legnica II win 53.0%, draw 13.7%, ROW Rybnik win 33.3%. The pick is Miedź Legnica II win. Over 2.5 goals: 82.0%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.