Warta Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Match result probability Model pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win
Warta Gorzów win
36.2%
Draw
24.7%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra winPick
39.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.1%
No44.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%
How much we know
Warta Gorzów history60 matches
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Karkonosze Jelenia Góra are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Warta Gorzów are rated 32 Elo points higher
Elo 1,549 against 1,517. On rating alone Warta Gorzów would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.45 goals a game over 60 matches for Warta Gorzów, against 1.45 over 62 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra.
-
Defences are close
Warta Gorzów concede 1.32 a game, Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1.45.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
55% of Warta Gorzów matches, against 58% for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1548.9
ELO
1517.2
60
ELO · Matches
62
1548.9
Current Team ELO
1517.2
1517.2
Current Opponent ELO
1548.9
31.62
Current ELO Difference
-31.62
0.55
Expected score
0.45
60
History Matches
62
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
52.69
Overperformance
50.94
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals 90
60
Matches
62
1.58
PPG
1.31
43.3%
Win rate
35.5%
28.3%
Draw rate
24.2%
28.3%
Loss rate
40.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.6%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
32
1.79
PPG
0.97
51.7%
Win rate
25.0%
24.1%
Draw rate
21.9%
24.1%
Loss rate
53.1%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
46.9%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
29
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.45
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.8%
56.7%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.56
89.7%
Scoring rate
68.8%
65.5%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
60
History Matches
62
1.45
Goals Mean
1.45
1.26
Goals Std
1.30
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.45
70.0%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.81
72.4%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
60
History Matches
62
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.24
Conceded Std
1.28
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
60
History Matches
62
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.87
1.97
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
61
19
Lead Matches
21
89.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.75
16
Trailing Matches
19
31.3%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.75
Rest days
82.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
31
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
25
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.60
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.40
Portability PPG Range
0.53
52.17
Portability Score
69.50
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
60
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO31.62
PPG0.28
GF0.00
GA-0.13
PPG0.00
PPG0.82
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate4.2%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.58
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score0.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate22.8%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.87
Portability Score-17.34
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO31.62
Current Opponent ELO-31.62
Current ELO Difference63.25
Expected score0.09
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Warta Gorzów
L
Miedź Legnica II6–0Warta Gorzów30 Oct · away
Pick: Miedź Legnica II 45% · hit L
Warta Gorzów0–2Kluczbork24 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Gorzów 45% · missed L
Rakow II3–2Warta Gorzów17 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Gorzów 54% · missed L
Warta Gorzów0–2Zagłębie Lubin II29 Aug · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
D
Kluczbork2–2Karkonosze Jelenia Góra30 Oct · away
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 40% · missed W
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra3–1Rakow II24 Oct · home
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 75% · hit D
Polonia Nysa2–2Karkonosze Jelenia Góra16 Oct · away
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 57% · missed D
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra0–0Odra Bytom Odrzański29 Aug · home
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Warta Gorzów and Karkonosze Jelenia Góra meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Warta Gorzów win 36.2%, draw 24.7%, Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win 39.1%. The pick is Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.