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III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 17 2026

Ślęza Wrocław vs Zagłębie Lubin II

Ślęza Wrocław Home · Elo 1,504
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zagłębie Lubin II Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zagłębie Lubin II win
Ślęza Wrocław win
28.9%
Draw
20.9%
Zagłębie Lubin II winPick
50.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.1%
No38.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%

How much we know

Ślęza Wrocław history64 matches
Zagłębie Lubin II history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Zagłębie Lubin II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,504 against 1,521. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Zagłębie Lubin II score more

    1.44 goals a game over 64 matches for Ślęza Wrocław, against 1.94 over 67 for Zagłębie Lubin II.

  • Defences are close

    Ślęza Wrocław concede 1.78 a game, Zagłębie Lubin II 1.90.

  • Zagłębie Lubin II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Ślęza Wrocław matches, against 76% for Zagłębie Lubin II. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ślęza Wrocław
Zagłębie Lubin II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.7
ELO
1521.0
64
ELO · Matches
67
1503.7
Current Team ELO
1521.0
1521.0
Current Opponent ELO
1503.7
-17.29
Current ELO Difference
17.29
0.48
Expected score
0.52
64
History Matches
67
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.43
Overperformance
51.49
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
2.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.99
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
67
1.27
PPG
1.52
34.4%
Win rate
44.8%
23.4%
Draw rate
17.9%
42.2%
Loss rate
37.3%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
76.1%
42.2%
Over 3.5 rate
56.7%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
32
1.54
PPG
1.38
42.9%
Win rate
37.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
32.1%
Loss rate
37.5%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
53.1%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
28
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.94
75.0%
Scoring rate
77.6%
59.4%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.78
60.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
64
History Matches
67
1.44
Goals Mean
1.94
1.37
Goals Std
1.59
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
56.7%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
32.8%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
1.90
76.6%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.88
64.3%
Conceding rate
84.4%
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
64
History Matches
67
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.55
Conceded Std
1.49
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.2%
26.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.9%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
67
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
2.18
Goal Difference Std
2.37
2.49
Stability score
5.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
63
18
Lead Matches
19
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.89
17
Trailing Matches
16
23.5%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.10
Rest days
84.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
30
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
28
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
2.20
-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.84
Portability PPG Range
1.20
60.93
Portability Score
55.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-17.29
PPG-0.26
GF-0.50
GA-0.11
PPG-1.60
PPG0.16
PPG-1.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate20.1%
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.59
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-3.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.59
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score5.29
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-17.29
Current Opponent ELO17.29
Current ELO Difference-34.59
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ślęza Wrocław

D
Ślęza Wrocław2–2Górnik Polkowice30 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Polkowice 51% · missed
W
Barycz Sułów1–2Ślęza Wrocław24 Oct · away
Pick: Barycz Sułów 55% · missed
L
Ślęza Wrocław1–3Carina Gubin17 Oct · home
Pick: Ślęza Wrocław 41% · missed
W
Polonia Nysa1–3Ślęza Wrocław29 Aug · away
Pick: Polonia Nysa 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Zagłębie Lubin II

L
Zagłębie Lubin II1–2Goczałkowice Zdrój6 Nov · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 59% · missed
L
Stal Brzeg4–1Zagłębie Lubin II31 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Brzeg 40% · hit
W
Zagłębie Lubin II3–1Stilon Gorzów25 Oct · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 57% · hit
L
Zagłębie Lubin II0–1Zaglebie Sosnowiec17 Oct · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 41% · missed
W
Warta Gorzów0–2Zagłębie Lubin II29 Aug · away
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 39% · hit

About this match

Ślęza Wrocław and Zagłębie Lubin II meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ślęza Wrocław win 28.9%, draw 20.9%, Zagłębie Lubin II win 50.2%. The pick is Zagłębie Lubin II win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.8%. Both teams to score: 61.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.