Kornburg vs DJK Bamberg
What we said before kickoff Result: Kornburg win
Kornburg winPick Result
69.2%
Draw
19.3%
DJK Bamberg win
11.4%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickKornburg win · 69.2%
What happenedKornburg win · we gave it 69.2%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 76.6%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 54.7%
What happenedNo · 2–0
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Kornburg win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
69%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.4
on average A pick at 69% is expected to miss about 3 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes54.7%
No45.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.576.6%
Under 2.523.4%
How much we know
Kornburg history53 matches
DJK Bamberg history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Kickoff6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full time: 2–0One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.7 Nov · 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why Kornburg are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kornburg are rated 58 Elo points higher
Elo 1,508 against 1,450. On rating alone Kornburg would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Kornburg score more
1.57 goals a game over 53 matches for Kornburg, against 1.14 over 7 for DJK Bamberg.
-
Kornburg concede fewer
Kornburg concede 1.66 a game, DJK Bamberg 3.00.
-
DJK Bamberg games more often go over 2.5 goals
58% of Kornburg matches, against 71% for DJK Bamberg. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
DJK Bamberg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1508.0
ELO
1449.8
53
ELO · Matches
7
1508.0
Current Team ELO
1449.8
1449.8
Current Opponent ELO
1508.0
58.20
Current ELO Difference
-58.20
0.58
Expected score
0.42
53
History Matches
7
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.34
50.12
Overperformance
41.07
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.34
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
3.40
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
7
1.50
PPG
0.29
1.50
Goals for per game
1.14
2.20
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.14
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
2.93
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.31
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.54
3.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
7
1.40
PPG
0.29
35.8%
Win rate
0.0%
32.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
32.1%
Loss rate
71.4%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
3
1.56
PPG
0.00
44.0%
Win rate
0.0%
24.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
32.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
25
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.14
79.2%
Scoring rate
57.1%
58.5%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.33
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.14
85.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
42.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
53
History Matches
7
1.57
Goals Mean
1.14
1.55
Goals Std
1.12
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.66
Goals against per game
3.00
73.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
3.33
64.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
3.00
42.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
7
1.66
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.78
Conceded Std
1.31
43.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.9%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
3.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
7
1.00
Result entropy
0.54
2.59
Goal Difference Std
1.55
0.13
Stability score
45.54
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
7
18
Lead Matches
2
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.17
11
Trailing Matches
3
18.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.43
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.29
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.25
22
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
7
Matches
7
2.14
PPG
0.29
57.1%
Win rate
0.0%
42.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
0.0%
Loss rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.14
Current Competition PPG
0.29
1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.86
5
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.78
Portability PPG Std
—
2.14
Portability PPG Range
—
39.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO58.20
PPG1.11
GF0.42
GA-1.34
PPG1.86
PPG1.56
PPG2.40
PPG1.21
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate26.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate36.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches46
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate22.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Std0.84
History Matches46
Conceded Mean-1.34
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.57
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-1.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.62
History Matches46
Result entropy0.45
Goal Difference Std1.03
Stability score-45.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.27
Eligible Matches44
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate61.1%
Lead Points Retention0.56
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches44
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.14
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.36
Long Rest History Matches21
Long Rest Points Per Match1.14
Current Team ELO58.20
Current Opponent ELO-58.20
Current ELO Difference116.4
Expected score0.17
History Matches46
Residual Mean0.35
Overperformance9.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.42
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kornburg
W
Kornburg3–0Cham30 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 42% · missed W
Kornburg3–1Neudrossenfeld16 Oct · home
Pick: Kornburg 59% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
DJK Bamberg
D
ASV Neumarkt0–0DJK Bamberg31 Oct · away
Pick: ASV Neumarkt 63% · missed W
DJK Bamberg4–1Ammerthal23 Oct · home
Pick: Ammerthal 47% · missed L
Großbardorf3–1DJK Bamberg16 Oct · away
Pick: Großbardorf 59% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Kornburg and DJK Bamberg finished 2–0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Friday 6 November 2026. It was 2–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC, before kickoff: Kornburg win 69.2%, draw 19.3%, DJK Bamberg win 11.4%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.