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Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 17 2026

Kostinbrod vs Strumska Slava

Kostinbrod Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Strumska Slava Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Strumska Slava win
Kostinbrod win
22.6%
Draw
25.8%
Strumska Slava winPick
51.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.9%
No49.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%

How much we know

Kostinbrod history37 matches
Strumska Slava history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Strumska Slava are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Strumska Slava are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,505. On rating alone Strumska Slava would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.38 goals a game over 37 matches for Kostinbrod, against 1.42 over 52 for Strumska Slava.

  • Strumska Slava concede fewer

    Kostinbrod concede 1.43 a game, Strumska Slava 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Kostinbrod matches, against 56% for Strumska Slava. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kostinbrod
Strumska Slava@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.2
ELO
1548.4
37
ELO · Matches
52
1505.2
Current Team ELO
1548.4
1548.4
Current Opponent ELO
1505.2
-43.27
Current ELO Difference
43.27
0.44
Expected score
0.56
37
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.65
Overperformance
53.06
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
52
1.43
PPG
1.54
43.2%
Win rate
40.4%
13.5%
Draw rate
32.7%
43.2%
Loss rate
26.9%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.8%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
27
2.05
PPG
1.11
63.2%
Win rate
22.2%
15.8%
Draw rate
44.4%
21.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
19
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.42
78.4%
Scoring rate
71.2%
54.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.84
Goals for per game
1.00
94.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
63.2%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.75
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
37
History Matches
52
1.38
Goals Mean
1.42
1.07
Goals Std
1.28
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
44.2%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
17.3%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.08
73.0%
Conceding rate
63.5%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.26
63.2%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
37
History Matches
52
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.26
Conceded Std
1.07
43.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
16.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.6%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
52
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.73
9.38
Stability score
1.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
30
4
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
26
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
8
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.64
0.08
Portability PPG Range
1.56
92.96
Portability Score
43.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-43.27
PPG-0.11
GF-0.04
GA0.36
PPG-1.00
PPG0.94
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score8.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.60
Portability PPG Range-1.49
Portability Score49.03
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO-43.27
Current Opponent ELO43.27
Current ELO Difference-86.53
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kostinbrod

D
Kostinbrod3–3Bansko31 Oct · home
Pick: Bansko 48% · missed
W
Levski Sofia II1–2Kostinbrod29 Aug · away
Pick: Levski Sofia II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Strumska Slava

D
Slavia Sofia II1–1Strumska Slava24 Oct · away
Pick: Strumska Slava 50% · missed
W
Strumska Slava3–0Pirin Razlog29 Aug · home
Pick: Strumska Slava 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kostinbrod and Strumska Slava meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kostinbrod win 22.6%, draw 25.8%, Strumska Slava win 51.6%. The pick is Strumska Slava win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.7%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.