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Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 17 2026

Levski Sofia II vs Botev Ihtiman

Levski Sofia II Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Botev Ihtiman Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Levski Sofia II win
Levski Sofia II winPick
36.3%
Draw
31.3%
Botev Ihtiman win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.9%
Under 2.556.1%

How much we know

Levski Sofia II history51 matches
Botev Ihtiman history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.3%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Levski Sofia II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Botev Ihtiman are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,452. On rating alone Botev Ihtiman would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Botev Ihtiman score more

    0.92 goals a game over 51 matches for Levski Sofia II, against 1.36 over 53 for Botev Ihtiman.

  • Defences are close

    Levski Sofia II concede 1.24 a game, Botev Ihtiman 1.13.

  • Botev Ihtiman games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Levski Sofia II matches, against 43% for Botev Ihtiman. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Levski Sofia II
Botev Ihtiman@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.0
ELO
1520.2
51
ELO · Matches
53
1452.0
Current Team ELO
1520.2
1520.2
Current Opponent ELO
1452.0
-68.22
Current ELO Difference
68.22
0.40
Expected score
0.60
51
History Matches
53
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
45.54
Overperformance
51.49
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
53
1.10
PPG
1.45
27.5%
Win rate
37.7%
27.5%
Draw rate
32.1%
45.1%
Loss rate
30.2%
56.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.4%
19.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
26
1.62
PPG
1.19
42.9%
Win rate
30.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.9%
23.8%
Loss rate
42.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
21
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.92
Goals for per game
1.36
52.9%
Scoring rate
73.6%
39.2%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.19
76.2%
Scoring rate
69.2%
52.4%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
51
History Matches
53
0.92
Goals Mean
1.36
1.20
Goals Std
1.15
52.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.6%
19.6%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.13
70.6%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.42
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
53
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.16
Conceded Std
1.13
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.51
2.71
Stability score
0.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
22
5
Lead Matches
3
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.53
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
34
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.44
82.79
Portability Score
73.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-68.22
PPG-0.35
GF-0.44
GA0.10
PPG-0.50
PPG0.43
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate20.6%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score2.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.60
Lead Points Retention-0.47
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score9.69
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.29
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-68.22
Current Opponent ELO68.22
Current ELO Difference-136.4
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Levski Sofia II

L
Levski Sofia II0–2Oborishte24 Oct · home
Pick: Oborishte 41% · hit
L
Levski Sofia II1–2Kostinbrod29 Aug · home
Pick: Levski Sofia II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Botev Ihtiman

L
Botev Ihtiman0–2Oborishte4 Nov · home
Pick: Oborishte 37% · hit
L
Botev Ihtiman1–2Belasitsa31 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 38% · missed
D
Botev Ihtiman2–2Septemvri Simitli24 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 37% · missed
L
Bansko1–0Botev Ihtiman7 Oct · away
Pick: Bansko 50% · hit
L
Spartak Plovdiv1–0Botev Ihtiman4 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 49% · hit

About this match

Levski Sofia II and Botev Ihtiman meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Levski Sofia II win 36.3%, draw 31.3%, Botev Ihtiman win 32.3%. The pick is Levski Sofia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.9%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.