Chavdar Etropole vs FK Minyor Pernik
Match result probability Model pick: FK Minyor Pernik win
Chavdar Etropole win
28.2%
Draw
34.2%
FK Minyor Pernik winPick
37.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.3%
No44.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%
How much we know
Chavdar Etropole history4 matches
FK Minyor Pernik history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours FK Minyor Pernik
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why FK Minyor Pernik are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Chavdar Etropole are rated 84 Elo points higher
Elo 1,493 against 1,410. On rating alone Chavdar Etropole would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Chavdar Etropole score more
1.50 goals a game over 4 matches for Chavdar Etropole, against 1.02 over 60 for FK Minyor Pernik.
-
FK Minyor Pernik concede fewer
Chavdar Etropole concede 2.00 a game, FK Minyor Pernik 1.53.
-
Chavdar Etropole games more often go over 2.5 goals
75% of Chavdar Etropole matches, against 45% for FK Minyor Pernik. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Minyor Pernik@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1493.4
ELO
1409.9
4
ELO · Matches
60
1493.4
Current Team ELO
1409.9
1409.9
Current Opponent ELO
1493.4
83.56
Current ELO Difference
-83.56
0.62
Expected score
0.38
4
History Matches
60
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.65
Overperformance
44.56
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
4
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
40.0%
4
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals 90
4
Matches
60
1.00
PPG
0.95
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
55.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
2
Matches
30
2.00
PPG
0.83
50.0%
Win rate
23.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
13.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
63.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.02
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
45.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.10
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
4
History Matches
60
1.50
Goals Mean
1.02
1.50
Goals Std
1.13
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
23.3%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.53
100.0%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.83
100.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
4
History Matches
60
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.53
0.71
Conceded Std
1.18
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.3%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
4
History Matches
60
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.77
5.36
Stability score
9.22
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
4
Eligible Matches
59
2
Lead Matches
16
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.75
1
Trailing Matches
19
0.0%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
0
Long Rest History Matches
21
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
1
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.43
—
Portability PPG Range
1.15
—
Portability Score
53.52
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
4
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO83.56
PPG0.05
GF0.48
GA0.47
PPG-0.75
PPG1.17
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-56
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches-56
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate15.0%
Scored 2+ rate1.7%
Scored 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches-56
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std-0.47
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate26.7%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches-56
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-3.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches-55
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-55
First Half Goals For Mean0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-33
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches-21
Current Team ELO83.56
Current Opponent ELO-83.56
Current ELO Difference167.1
Expected score0.24
History Matches-56
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance4.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Chavdar Etropole
W
Chavdar Etropole4–2Natsional Sofia31 Oct · home
Pick: Chavdar Etropole 53% · hit D
CSKA Sofia III0–0Chavdar Etropole24 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia III 62% · missed W
Chavdar Etropole1–0Balkan Botevgrad17 Oct · home
Pick: Chavdar Etropole 37% · hit L
Kyustendil3–1Chavdar Etropole29 Aug · away
Pick: Kyustendil 56% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
FK Minyor Pernik
W
Balkan Botevgrad1–4FK Minyor Pernik31 Oct · away
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 43% · hit D
Slivnishki geroy0–0FK Minyor Pernik24 Oct · away
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 41% · missed W
FK Minyor Pernik5–1Slavia Sofia II7 Oct · home
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 56% · hit L
FK Minyor Pernik1–2Beroe4 Oct · home
Pick: Beroe 40% · hit D
Oborishte0–0FK Minyor Pernik29 Aug · away
Pick: Oborishte 44% · missed About this match
Chavdar Etropole and FK Minyor Pernik meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Chavdar Etropole win 28.2%, draw 34.2%, FK Minyor Pernik win 37.7%. The pick is FK Minyor Pernik win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.