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Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 17 2026

Septemvri Sofia II vs Kyustendil

Septemvri Sofia II Home · Elo 1,528
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kyustendil Away · Elo 1,501
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Septemvri Sofia II win
Septemvri Sofia II winPick
48.3%
Draw
25.5%
Kyustendil win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%

How much we know

Septemvri Sofia II history49 matches
Kyustendil history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Septemvri Sofia II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Septemvri Sofia II are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,501. On rating alone Septemvri Sofia II would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Kyustendil score more

    1.27 goals a game over 49 matches for Septemvri Sofia II, against 1.85 over 53 for Kyustendil.

  • Septemvri Sofia II concede fewer

    Septemvri Sofia II concede 1.22 a game, Kyustendil 1.55.

  • Kyustendil games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Septemvri Sofia II matches, against 66% for Kyustendil. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Septemvri Sofia II
Kyustendil@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1528.5
ELO
1501.1
49
ELO · Matches
53
1528.5
Current Team ELO
1501.1
1501.1
Current Opponent ELO
1528.5
27.40
Current ELO Difference
-27.40
0.54
Expected score
0.46
49
History Matches
53
0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
52.23
Overperformance
49.85
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.21
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
53
1.41
PPG
1.57
36.7%
Win rate
47.2%
30.6%
Draw rate
15.1%
32.7%
Loss rate
37.7%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.88
PPG
0.93
52.0%
Win rate
25.9%
32.0%
Draw rate
14.8%
16.0%
Loss rate
59.3%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.85
63.3%
Scoring rate
75.5%
44.9%
BTTS rate
60.4%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.37
60.0%
Scoring rate
74.1%
36.0%
BTTS rate
70.4%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
53
1.27
Goals Mean
1.85
1.29
Goals Std
1.65
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
18.4%
Scored 3+ rate
32.1%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.55
65.3%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.72
Goals against per game
2.11
52.0%
Conceding rate
92.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
53
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.23
Conceded Std
1.37
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.1%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
2.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.4%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.4%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
53
1.00
Result entropy
0.92
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.21
0.26
Stability score
8.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
24
9
Lead Matches
9
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.93
3
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
33
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
12
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.42
Portability PPG Range
1.06
73.23
Portability Score
53.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO27.40
PPG-0.16
GF-0.58
GA-0.32
PPG0.75
PPG0.95
PPG1.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate40.6%
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-1.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.23
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score-8.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.60
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate22.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score19.82
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.58
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO27.40
Current Opponent ELO-27.40
Current ELO Difference54.80
Expected score0.08
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Septemvri Sofia II

L
Septemvri Sofia II0–1Bansko24 Oct · home
Pick: Bansko 36% · hit
W
Natsional Sofia1–2Septemvri Sofia II7 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Sofia II 54% · hit
L
Septemvri Sofia II1–2Slivnishki geroy29 Aug · home
Pick: Septemvri Sofia II 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kyustendil

D
Kyustendil0–0Belasitsa24 Oct · home
Pick: Kyustendil 41% · missed
D
Oborishte2–2Kyustendil7 Oct · away
Pick: Oborishte 52% · missed
W
Kyustendil3–1Chavdar Etropole29 Aug · home
Pick: Kyustendil 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Septemvri Sofia II and Kyustendil meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Septemvri Sofia II win 48.3%, draw 25.5%, Kyustendil win 26.1%. The pick is Septemvri Sofia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.7%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.