ScoreProb
NB II Hungary Round 13 2026

Kozarmisleny FC vs Ajka

Kozarmisleny FC Home · Elo 1,520
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ajka Away · Elo 1,469
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ajka win
Kozarmisleny FC win
34.9%
Draw
27.2%
Ajka winPick
37.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Kozarmisleny FC history59 matches
Ajka history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ajka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kozarmisleny FC are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,469. On rating alone Kozarmisleny FC would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Kozarmisleny FC score more

    1.29 goals a game over 59 matches for Kozarmisleny FC, against 0.87 over 60 for Ajka.

  • Ajka concede fewer

    Kozarmisleny FC concede 1.49 a game, Ajka 1.18.

  • Kozarmisleny FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Kozarmisleny FC matches, against 32% for Ajka. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kozarmisleny FC
Ajka
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.4
ELO
1469.1
59
ELO · Matches
60
1520.4
Current Team ELO
1469.1
1469.1
Current Opponent ELO
1520.4
51.39
Current ELO Difference
-51.39
0.57
Expected score
0.43
59
History Matches
60
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.50
Overperformance
48.91
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
60
1.41
PPG
1.17
39.0%
Win rate
31.7%
23.7%
Draw rate
21.7%
37.3%
Loss rate
46.7%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
31.7%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.3%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.69
PPG
1.11
46.2%
Win rate
29.6%
30.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
23.1%
Loss rate
48.1%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
22.2%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
0.87
72.9%
Scoring rate
58.3%
50.8%
BTTS rate
38.3%
1.42
Goals for per game
0.70
73.1%
Scoring rate
59.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
0.60
Goals for per game
1.75
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
60
1.29
Goals Mean
0.87
1.18
Goals Std
0.90
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
58.3%
40.7%
Scored 2+ rate
21.7%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.18
72.9%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.15
65.4%
Conceding rate
70.4%
2.40
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
60
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.42
Conceded Std
1.07
39.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
22.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.7%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
60
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.47
2.02
Stability score
4.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
58
19
Lead Matches
16
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.81
19
Trailing Matches
20
21.1%
Non-loss rate
5.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
29
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
28
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
5
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.00
42.77
Portability Score
58.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO51.39
PPG0.24
GF0.42
GA0.31
PPG-2.00
PPG0.58
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate14.5%
Scored 2+ rate19.0%
Scored 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.62
Stability score-2.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate16.1%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.80
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-15.37
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO51.39
Current Opponent ELO-51.39
Current ELO Difference102.8
Expected score0.15
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kozarmisleny FC

W
Soroksar0–1Kozarmisleny FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Soroksar 56% · missed
W
Kozarmisleny FC3–2Soroksar28 Oct · home
Pick: Soroksar 40% · missed
L
Kozarmisleny FC0–2Szentlőrinc SE24 Oct · home
Pick: Szentlőrinc SE 41% · hit
W
Nagykanizsai ULE0–3Kozarmisleny FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Nagykanizsai ULE 57% · missed
L
Kecskeméti TE3–0Kozarmisleny FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Kecskeméti TE 59% · hit

Ajka

D
Ajka1–1Gyirmot SE31 Oct · home
Pick: Ajka 47% · missed
W
Kaposvar0–2Ajka27 Oct · away
Pick: Kaposvar 46% · missed
W
Fehérvár FC1–2Ajka24 Oct · away
Pick: Fehérvár FC 41% · missed
L
Ajka1–2BVSC17 Oct · home
Pick: Ajka 56% · missed
D
Mezokovesd-zsory1–1Ajka14 Oct · away
Pick: Mezokovesd-zsory 41% · missed

About this match

Kozarmisleny FC and Ajka meet in NB II on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kozarmisleny FC win 34.9%, draw 27.2%, Ajka win 37.9%. The pick is Ajka win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.