Laguna de Duero vs Villa Santa Brígida
Match result probability Model pick: Villa Santa Brígida win
Laguna de Duero win
27.0%
Draw
27.2%
Villa Santa Brígida winPick
45.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.5%
No51.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%
How much we know
Laguna de Duero history17 matches
Villa Santa Brígida history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Villa Santa Brígida
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Villa Santa Brígida are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Villa Santa Brígida are rated 65 Elo points higher
Elo 1,499 against 1,434. On rating alone Villa Santa Brígida would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Villa Santa Brígida score more
0.82 goals a game over 17 matches for Laguna de Duero, against 1.06 over 47 for Villa Santa Brígida.
-
Villa Santa Brígida concede fewer
Laguna de Duero concede 2.06 a game, Villa Santa Brígida 1.06.
-
Laguna de Duero games more often go over 2.5 goals
53% of Laguna de Duero matches, against 38% for Villa Santa Brígida. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villa Santa Brígida@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1433.8
ELO
1498.6
17
ELO · Matches
47
1433.8
Current Team ELO
1498.6
1498.6
Current Opponent ELO
1433.8
-64.83
Current ELO Difference
64.83
0.41
Expected score
0.59
17
History Matches
47
-0.19
Residual Mean
0.00
41.31
Overperformance
49.81
-0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
3.40
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.20
PPG
1.60
0.70
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals 90
17
Matches
47
0.76
PPG
1.28
17.6%
Win rate
34.0%
23.5%
Draw rate
25.5%
58.8%
Loss rate
40.4%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.3%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
12.8%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals 100
9
Matches
24
0.67
PPG
0.75
11.1%
Win rate
20.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
12.5%
55.6%
Loss rate
66.7%
44.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
22.2%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
9
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.82
Goals for per game
1.06
58.8%
Scoring rate
66.0%
47.1%
BTTS rate
38.3%
0.44
Goals for per game
0.75
44.4%
Scoring rate
45.8%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
17
History Matches
47
0.82
Goals Mean
1.06
0.98
Goals Std
1.06
58.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
11.8%
Scored 2+ rate
23.4%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
0.44
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.06
Goals against per game
1.06
76.5%
Conceding rate
63.8%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.38
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
17
History Matches
47
2.06
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.59
Conceded Std
1.00
58.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
41.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.4%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
55.6%
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
55.6%
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
17
History Matches
47
0.87
Result entropy
0.98
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.62
12.74
Stability score
1.55
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
46
5
Lead Matches
14
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.74
4
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
1.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
553.1
Rest days
189.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
12
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
3
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.30
—
Portability PPG Range
0.60
—
Portability Score
62.60
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
17
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-64.83
PPG-0.51
GF-0.24
GA0.99
PPG-0.08
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-30
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches-30
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches-30
Conceded Mean0.99
Conceded Std0.59
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate24.8%
Conceded 3+ rate34.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-30
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score11.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.79
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days363.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches-21
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO-64.83
Current Opponent ELO64.83
Current ELO Difference-129.7
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-30
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-8.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.41
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Laguna de Duero
L
Laguna de Duero0–3Estrella31 Oct · home
Pick: Estrella 39% · hit L
Unión Sur Yaiza3–1Laguna de Duero24 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Sur Yaiza 61% · hit L
Las Palmas III3–0Laguna de Duero21 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas III 63% · hit D
Laguna de Duero1–1Playas Sotavento17 Oct · home
Pick: Laguna de Duero 54% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Villa Santa Brígida
L
Villa Santa Brígida1–2Real Unión de Tenerife7 Nov · home
Pick: Villa Santa Brígida 48% · missed D
Marino1–1Villa Santa Brígida1 Nov · away
Pick: Marino 39% · missed W
Villa Santa Brígida1–0Los Llanos24 Oct · home
Pick: Villa Santa Brígida 63% · hit L
Tenerife C2–1Villa Santa Brígida21 Oct · away
Pick: Villa Santa Brígida 42% · missed L
UD San Fernando4–0Villa Santa Brígida17 Oct · away
Pick: UD San Fernando 57% · hit About this match
Laguna de Duero and Villa Santa Brígida meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Laguna de Duero win 27.0%, draw 27.2%, Villa Santa Brígida win 45.7%. The pick is Villa Santa Brígida win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.4%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.