Real Unión de Tenerife vs Mensajero
Match result probability Model pick: Mensajero win
Real Unión de Tenerife win
25.6%
Draw
34.5%
Mensajero winPick
39.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.7%
No54.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.535.9%
Under 2.564.1%
How much we know
Real Unión de Tenerife history33 matches
Mensajero history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Mensajero
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Mensajero are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Mensajero are rated 104 Elo points higher
Elo 1,588 against 1,483. On rating alone Mensajero would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Mensajero score more
0.97 goals a game over 33 matches for Real Unión de Tenerife, against 1.47 over 51 for Mensajero.
-
Defences are close
Real Unión de Tenerife concede 0.94 a game, Mensajero 0.92.
-
Mensajero games more often go over 2.5 goals
24% of Real Unión de Tenerife matches, against 39% for Mensajero. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mensajero@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1483.3
ELO
1587.5
33
ELO · Matches
51
1483.3
Current Team ELO
1587.5
1587.5
Current Opponent ELO
1483.3
-104.3
Current ELO Difference
104.3
0.35
Expected score
0.65
33
History Matches
51
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.08
48.24
Overperformance
55.91
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
33
Matches
51
1.27
PPG
1.78
33.3%
Win rate
49.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
31.4%
39.4%
Loss rate
19.6%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
62.7%
24.2%
Over 2.5 rate
39.2%
12.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
26
1.88
PPG
1.35
56.3%
Win rate
30.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
42.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
26.9%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
26.9%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
16
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.97
Goals for per game
1.47
54.5%
Scoring rate
74.5%
30.3%
BTTS rate
43.1%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.96
62.5%
Scoring rate
57.7%
25.0%
BTTS rate
30.8%
33
History Matches
51
0.97
Goals Mean
1.47
1.14
Goals Std
1.24
54.5%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
27.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.94
Goals against per game
0.92
60.6%
Conceding rate
54.9%
0.75
Goals against per game
0.96
43.8%
Conceding rate
50.0%
33
History Matches
51
0.94
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.01
Conceded Std
1.08
21.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
33
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.51
1.01
Stability score
6.01
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
33
Eligible Matches
51
8
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.84
8
Trailing Matches
6
25.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
188.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
13
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.00
—
Portability PPG Range
0.01
—
Portability Score
99.44
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
33
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-104.3
PPG-0.51
GF-0.50
GA0.02
PPG0.53
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.78
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches-18
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-5.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Current Team ELO-104.3
Current Opponent ELO104.3
Current ELO Difference-208.5
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Real Unión de Tenerife
W
Villa Santa Brígida1–2Real Unión de Tenerife7 Nov · away
Pick: Villa Santa Brígida 48% · missed D
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1Lanzarote31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · hit W
Estrella0–1Real Unión de Tenerife24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 42% · missed L
UD San Fernando3–2Real Unión de Tenerife21 Oct · away
Pick: UD San Fernando 55% · hit D
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1Unión Sur Yaiza17 Oct · home
Pick: Real Unión de Tenerife 38% · missed Mensajero
L
Los Llanos3–1Mensajero31 Oct · away
Pick: Mensajero 48% · missed D
Mensajero2–2UD San Fernando25 Oct · home
Pick: Mensajero 35% · missed D
Las Palmas III2–2Mensajero17 Oct · away
Pick: Mensajero 47% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Real Unión de Tenerife and Mensajero meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Real Unión de Tenerife win 25.6%, draw 34.5%, Mensajero win 39.9%. The pick is Mensajero win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.9%. Both teams to score: 45.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.