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Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain Group 12 - 11 2026

Panadería Pulido vs San Bartolomé

Panadería Pulido Home · Elo 1,558
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Bartolomé Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Panadería Pulido win
Panadería Pulido winPick
46.3%
Draw
23.8%
San Bartolomé win
29.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%

How much we know

Panadería Pulido history45 matches
San Bartolomé history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Panadería Pulido are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Panadería Pulido are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,490. On rating alone Panadería Pulido would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Panadería Pulido score more

    1.44 goals a game over 45 matches for Panadería Pulido, against 1.15 over 48 for San Bartolomé.

  • Panadería Pulido concede fewer

    Panadería Pulido concede 0.98 a game, San Bartolomé 1.48.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Panadería Pulido matches, against 42% for San Bartolomé. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Panadería Pulido
San Bartolomé@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.4
ELO
1490.3
45
ELO · Matches
48
1558.4
Current Team ELO
1490.3
1490.3
Current Opponent ELO
1558.4
68.16
Current ELO Difference
-68.16
0.60
Expected score
0.40
45
History Matches
48
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.01
53.85
Overperformance
49.30
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
48
1.71
PPG
1.25
46.7%
Win rate
29.2%
31.1%
Draw rate
37.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
24
1.62
PPG
1.29
42.9%
Win rate
29.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
41.7%
23.8%
Loss rate
29.2%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
21
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.44
Goals for per game
1.15
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.4%
55.6%
BTTS rate
47.9%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.33
71.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.4%
BTTS rate
54.2%
45
History Matches
48
1.44
Goals Mean
1.15
1.11
Goals Std
1.32
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.4%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
29.2%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
1.48
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.75
61.9%
Conceding rate
70.8%
45
History Matches
48
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.48
0.88
Conceded Std
1.55
24.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.6%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.6%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
48
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.85
4.14
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
48
16
Lead Matches
11
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.82
7
Trailing Matches
15
57.1%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
174.0
Rest days
188.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.51
66.55
Portability Score
66.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO68.16
PPG0.46
GF0.30
GA-0.50
PPG0.33
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate19.6%
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.67
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score3.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate30.5%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score0.28
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO68.16
Current Opponent ELO-68.16
Current ELO Difference136.3
Expected score0.19
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Panadería Pulido

W
Unión Sur Yaiza1–2Panadería Pulido7 Nov · away
Pick: Panadería Pulido 35% · hit
W
Panadería Pulido5–0Villaverde Norte31 Oct · home
Pick: Panadería Pulido 67% · hit
D
Playas Sotavento1–1Panadería Pulido24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
W
Panadería Pulido4–1San Miguel17 Oct · home
Pick: Panadería Pulido 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

San Bartolomé

L
Villaverde Norte2–0San Bartolomé7 Nov · away
Pick: Villaverde Norte 35% · hit
L
San Bartolomé0–1San Miguel31 Oct · home
Pick: San Bartolomé 49% · missed
L
Anaza2–1San Bartolomé24 Oct · away
Pick: Anaza 35% · hit
D
San Bartolomé1–1Playas Sotavento21 Oct · home
Pick: San Bartolomé 65% · missed
L
San Bartolomé2–4Tenerife C17 Oct · home
Pick: San Bartolomé 46% · missed

About this match

Panadería Pulido and San Bartolomé meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Panadería Pulido win 46.3%, draw 23.8%, San Bartolomé win 29.9%. The pick is Panadería Pulido win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.6%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.