Unión Sur Yaiza vs Estrella
Match result probability Model pick: Unión Sur Yaiza win
Unión Sur Yaiza winPick
53.6%
Draw
25.6%
Estrella win
20.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes44.5%
No55.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.543.5%
Under 2.556.5%
How much we know
Unión Sur Yaiza history48 matches
Estrella history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Unión Sur Yaiza
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Unión Sur Yaiza are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Estrella are rated 58 Elo points higher
Elo 1,494 against 1,436. On rating alone Estrella would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Estrella score more
0.85 goals a game over 48 matches for Unión Sur Yaiza, against 1.00 over 14 for Estrella.
-
Estrella concede fewer
Unión Sur Yaiza concede 1.33 a game, Estrella 1.07.
-
Unión Sur Yaiza games more often go over 2.5 goals
42% of Unión Sur Yaiza matches, against 29% for Estrella. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estrella@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1435.7
ELO
1493.6
48
ELO · Matches
14
1435.7
Current Team ELO
1493.6
1493.6
Current Opponent ELO
1435.7
-57.89
Current ELO Difference
57.89
0.42
Expected score
0.58
48
History Matches
14
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.01
45.77
Overperformance
49.60
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
14
0.92
PPG
1.29
20.8%
Win rate
28.6%
29.2%
Draw rate
42.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
28.6%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
6
1.28
PPG
0.67
36.0%
Win rate
16.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
44.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
16.7%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
25
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.85
Goals for per game
1.00
45.8%
Scoring rate
64.3%
31.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.08
Goals for per game
0.83
52.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
24.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
48
History Matches
14
0.85
Goals Mean
1.00
1.15
Goals Std
0.85
45.8%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
22.9%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.07
70.8%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.50
64.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
48
History Matches
14
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.20
Conceded Std
0.88
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
54.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
54.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
14
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.10
6.00
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
46
Eligible Matches
14
8
Lead Matches
1
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.33
14
Trailing Matches
4
7.1%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
188.0
Rest days
552.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
8
0.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
21
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.40
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.23
Portability PPG Std
—
0.46
Portability PPG Range
—
68.46
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-57.89
PPG-0.37
GF-0.15
GA0.26
PPG0.61
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches34
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate18.5%
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches34
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches34
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches34
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.62
Stability score4.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate75.0%
Lead Points Retention0.50
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.43
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-364.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.07
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO-57.89
Current Opponent ELO57.89
Current ELO Difference-115.8
Expected score-0.17
History Matches34
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Unión Sur Yaiza
L
Unión Sur Yaiza1–2Panadería Pulido7 Nov · home
Pick: Panadería Pulido 35% · hit W
Playas Sotavento0–2Unión Sur Yaiza31 Oct · away
Pick: Playas Sotavento 39% · missed W
Unión Sur Yaiza3–1Laguna de Duero24 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Sur Yaiza 61% · hit W
Villaverde Norte0–1Unión Sur Yaiza21 Oct · away
Pick: Villaverde Norte 39% · missed D
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1Unión Sur Yaiza17 Oct · away
Pick: Real Unión de Tenerife 38% · missed Estrella
W
Estrella2–1Playas Sotavento7 Nov · home
Pick: Estrella 53% · hit W
Laguna de Duero0–3Estrella31 Oct · away
Pick: Estrella 39% · hit L
Estrella0–1Real Unión de Tenerife24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 42% · missed L
San Miguel3–0Estrella21 Oct · away
Pick: San Miguel 52% · hit L
Marino1–0Estrella18 Oct · away
Pick: Marino 55% · hit About this match
Unión Sur Yaiza and Estrella meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Unión Sur Yaiza win 53.6%, draw 25.6%, Estrella win 20.7%. The pick is Unión Sur Yaiza win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.5%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.