ScoreProb
National 2 - Group A France Group A - 9 2026

Le Pays du Valois vs Epinal

Le Pays du Valois Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Epinal Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Epinal win
Le Pays du Valois win
32.4%
Draw
25.8%
Epinal winPick
41.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%

How much we know

Le Pays du Valois history30 matches
Epinal history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Epinal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Le Pays du Valois are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,489. On rating alone Le Pays du Valois would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Le Pays du Valois score more

    1.47 goals a game over 30 matches for Le Pays du Valois, against 1.13 over 47 for Epinal.

  • Defences are close

    Le Pays du Valois concede 1.37 a game, Epinal 1.26.

  • Le Pays du Valois games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Le Pays du Valois matches, against 45% for Epinal. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Le Pays du Valois
Epinal@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.2
ELO
1488.5
30
ELO · Matches
47
1516.2
Current Team ELO
1488.5
1488.5
Current Opponent ELO
1516.2
27.64
Current ELO Difference
-27.64
0.54
Expected score
0.46
30
History Matches
47
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.30
Overperformance
49.63
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
30
Matches
47
1.57
PPG
1.26
43.3%
Win rate
31.9%
26.7%
Draw rate
29.8%
30.0%
Loss rate
38.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.4%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
22
1.71
PPG
1.45
52.9%
Win rate
40.9%
11.8%
Draw rate
22.7%
35.3%
Loss rate
36.4%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
17
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.13
80.0%
Scoring rate
74.5%
56.7%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.23
82.4%
Scoring rate
77.3%
58.8%
BTTS rate
45.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
30
History Matches
47
1.47
Goals Mean
1.13
1.15
Goals Std
0.84
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
43.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
4.3%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.26
70.0%
Conceding rate
70.2%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.14
76.5%
Conceding rate
54.5%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
30
History Matches
47
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.25
Conceded Std
1.10
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.3%
23.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
30
History Matches
47
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.25
2.06
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
22
Eligible Matches
46
6
Lead Matches
10
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.87
6
Trailing Matches
11
33.3%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.02
Rest days
77.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
20
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.25
63.59
Portability Score
80.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
30
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO27.64
PPG0.31
GF0.34
GA0.11
PPG-1.00
PPG0.25
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate9.3%
Scored 3+ rate12.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.47
Stability score1.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-16.66
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO27.64
Current Opponent ELO-27.64
Current ELO Difference55.28
Expected score0.08
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Le Pays du Valois

W
Le Pays du Valois4–1Montlouis17 Oct · home
Pick: Montlouis 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Epinal

D
Epinal2–2St-Pryvé St-Hilaire31 Oct · home
Pick: Epinal 46% · missed
D
Montlouis0–0Epinal29 Aug · away
Pick: Montlouis 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Le Pays du Valois and Epinal meet in National 2 - Group A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Le Pays du Valois win 32.4%, draw 25.8%, Epinal win 41.7%. The pick is Epinal win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.1%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.