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Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 18 2026

Leatherhead vs St Albans City

Leatherhead Home · Elo 1,623
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
St Albans City Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leatherhead win
Leatherhead winPick
46.9%
Draw
24.1%
St Albans City win
29.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%

How much we know

Leatherhead history61 matches
St Albans City history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Leatherhead are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leatherhead are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,623 against 1,504. On rating alone Leatherhead would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Leatherhead score more

    2.15 goals a game over 61 matches for Leatherhead, against 1.57 over 81 for St Albans City.

  • Defences are close

    Leatherhead concede 1.31 a game, St Albans City 1.38.

  • Leatherhead games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Leatherhead matches, against 49% for St Albans City. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leatherhead
St Albans City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.4
ELO
1504.2
61
ELO · Matches
81
1623.4
Current Team ELO
1504.2
1504.2
Current Opponent ELO
1623.4
119.2
Current ELO Difference
-119.2
0.67
Expected score
0.33
61
History Matches
81
0.11
Residual Mean
0.00
58.18
Overperformance
49.91
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
2.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.64
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
81
2.11
PPG
1.42
63.9%
Win rate
39.5%
19.7%
Draw rate
23.5%
16.4%
Loss rate
37.0%
86.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
49.4%
44.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
42
2.11
PPG
1.21
65.7%
Win rate
31.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.5%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
35
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.15
Goals for per game
1.57
95.1%
Scoring rate
81.5%
60.7%
BTTS rate
59.3%
2.26
Goals for per game
1.55
97.1%
Scoring rate
78.6%
60.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
81
2.15
Goals Mean
1.57
1.14
Goals Std
1.32
95.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
68.9%
Scored 2+ rate
42.0%
34.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
2.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.38
63.9%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.64
62.9%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
81
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.61
Conceded Std
1.34
36.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
4.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
2.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
4.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
2.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
81
0.82
Result entropy
0.98
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.89
17.87
Stability score
2.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
80
27
Lead Matches
22
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.92
11
Trailing Matches
28
45.5%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
3.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
68
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
11
Long Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.54
Portability PPG Range
1.00
71.12
Portability Score
58.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO119.2
PPG0.70
GF0.58
GA-0.07
PPG0.25
PPG0.90
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate22.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-20
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate13.6%
Scored 2+ rate26.9%
Scored 3+ rate15.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Conceded 2+ rate2.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches-20
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score15.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate24.0%
Trailing Win Rate14.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score12.69
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.68
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.67
Current Team ELO119.2
Current Opponent ELO-119.2
Current ELO Difference238.4
Expected score0.33
History Matches-20
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leatherhead

W
Brentwood Town1–2Leatherhead3 Nov · away
Pick: Leatherhead 42% · hit
W
Leatherhead7–2Stanway Rovers31 Oct · home
Pick: Leatherhead 64% · hit
L
Welling United1–0Leatherhead27 Oct · away
Pick: Welling United 55% · hit
D
Leatherhead3–3Yeovil Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Yeovil Town 47% · missed
L
Chatham Town3–0Leatherhead6 Oct · away
Pick: Chatham Town 58% · hit

St Albans City

L
St Albans City1–3Welling United7 Nov · home
Pick: Welling United 38% · hit
L
Aveley1–0St Albans City2 Nov · away
Pick: Aveley 60% · hit
W
Whitehawk1–3St Albans City31 Oct · away
Pick: St Albans City 45% · hit
W
St Albans City3–1Burgess Hill Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 40% · missed
L
Whitehawk1–0St Albans City24 Oct · away
Pick: St Albans City 47% · missed

About this match

Leatherhead and St Albans City meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Leatherhead win 46.9%, draw 24.1%, St Albans City win 29.0%. The pick is Leatherhead win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.1%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.