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Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 18 2026

Whyteleafe vs Chatham Town

Whyteleafe Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chatham Town Away · Elo 1,591
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chatham Town win
Whyteleafe win
7.7%
Draw
11.0%
Chatham Town winPick
81.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%

How much we know

Whyteleafe history6 matches
Chatham Town history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (81.3%). Picks in that band won 83.1% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 177 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Chatham Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chatham Town are rated 135 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,456. On rating alone Chatham Town would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Chatham Town score far more

    1.17 goals a game over 6 matches for Whyteleafe, against 1.87 over 79 for Chatham Town.

  • Chatham Town concede fewer

    Whyteleafe concede 2.83 a game, Chatham Town 0.91.

  • Whyteleafe games more often go over 2.5 goals

    83% of Whyteleafe matches, against 58% for Chatham Town. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Whyteleafe
Chatham Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.5
ELO
1591.4
6
ELO · Matches
79
1456.5
Current Team ELO
1591.4
1591.4
Current Opponent ELO
1456.5
-134.9
Current ELO Difference
134.9
0.32
Expected score
0.68
6
History Matches
79
-0.33
Residual Mean
0.06
42.35
Overperformance
54.67
-0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.80
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
6
Matches
10
0.33
PPG
1.80
1.17
Goals for per game
2.50
2.83
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
2.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
79
0.33
PPG
1.90
0.0%
Win rate
58.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
15.2%
66.7%
Loss rate
26.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.9%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.2%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.2%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
38
0.50
PPG
1.89
0.0%
Win rate
55.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
23.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
21.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
4
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
1.87
66.7%
Scoring rate
81.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
41.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.84
75.0%
Scoring rate
81.6%
75.0%
BTTS rate
34.2%
0.75
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
79
1.17
Goals Mean
1.87
1.07
Goals Std
1.42
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.4%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
35.4%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.83
Goals against per game
0.91
100.0%
Conceding rate
55.7%
2.75
Goals against per game
0.76
100.0%
Conceding rate
44.7%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
79
2.83
Conceded Mean
0.91
0.69
Conceded Std
1.06
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.5%
66.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
2.75
Venue Conceded Mean
0.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
79
0.58
Result entropy
0.87
1.25
Goal Difference Std
1.92
42.06
Stability score
13.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
78
0
Lead Matches
39
—
Lead Win Rate
87.2%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.91
5
Trailing Matches
15
20.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
2.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
4
Normal Rest History Matches
69
0.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.07
1
Long Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
2.25
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
2
Competition Season Count
7
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
—
Portability PPG Std
0.33
—
Portability PPG Range
0.93
—
Portability Score
59.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-134.9
PPG-1.57
GF-0.71
GA1.92
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.39
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.47
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-73
Clean-sheet rate-0.44
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-34
Clean-sheet rate-0.55
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches-73
Goals Mean-0.71
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches-73
Conceded Mean1.92
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.44
Conceded 2+ rate78.5%
Conceded 3+ rate55.3%
Venue Conceded Mean1.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.51
History Matches-73
Result entropy-0.29
Goal Difference Std-0.67
Stability score28.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.45
Eligible Matches-72
Lead Matches-39
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-72
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean1.56
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-5
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-65
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.82
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-134.9
Current Opponent ELO134.9
Current ELO Difference-269.9
Expected score-0.37
History Matches-73
Residual Mean-0.39
Overperformance-12.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Whyteleafe

W
Enfield Town0–2Whyteleafe7 Nov · away
Pick: Enfield Town 71% · missed
W
Whyteleafe4–2Dulwich Hamlet31 Oct · home
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 68% · missed
L
Whyteleafe2–3Burgess Hill Town21 Oct · home
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 70% · hit
W
Whyteleafe2–1Dartford17 Oct · home
Pick: Dartford 72% · missed
W
Whyteleafe5–0Whitehawk14 Oct · home
Pick: Whitehawk 41% · missed

Chatham Town

D
Chatham Town1–1Burgess Hill Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Chatham Town 58% · missed
L
Cheshunt3–1Chatham Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Chatham Town 56% · missed
L
Enfield Town4–0Chatham Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Enfield Town 36% · hit
W
Chatham Town3–2Welling United24 Oct · home
Pick: Chatham Town 46% · hit
W
Dulwich Hamlet0–4Chatham Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Chatham Town 35% · hit

About this match

Whyteleafe and Chatham Town meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Whyteleafe win 7.7%, draw 11.0%, Chatham Town win 81.3%. The pick is Chatham Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.5%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.