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Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 18 2026

Welling United vs Three Bridges

Welling United Home · Elo 1,490
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Three Bridges Away · Elo 1,569
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Welling United win
Welling United winPick
58.3%
Draw
20.2%
Three Bridges win
21.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.0%
Under 2.533.0%

How much we know

Welling United history74 matches
Three Bridges history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Welling United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Three Bridges are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,490. On rating alone Three Bridges would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Three Bridges score far more

    1.22 goals a game over 74 matches for Welling United, against 2.36 over 58 for Three Bridges.

  • Three Bridges concede fewer

    Welling United concede 1.97 a game, Three Bridges 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Welling United matches, against 69% for Three Bridges. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Welling United
Three Bridges@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.2
ELO
1569.1
74
ELO · Matches
58
1490.2
Current Team ELO
1569.1
1569.1
Current Opponent ELO
1490.2
-78.92
Current ELO Difference
78.92
0.39
Expected score
0.61
74
History Matches
58
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.45
Overperformance
54.45
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
3.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.10
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
58
1.03
PPG
1.84
29.7%
Win rate
56.9%
13.5%
Draw rate
13.8%
56.8%
Loss rate
29.3%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
63.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
56.9%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
28
1.26
PPG
1.61
34.3%
Win rate
50.0%
22.9%
Draw rate
10.7%
42.9%
Loss rate
39.3%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
34.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
35
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
2.36
68.9%
Scoring rate
84.5%
58.1%
BTTS rate
56.9%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.82
62.9%
Scoring rate
78.6%
45.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
58
1.22
Goals Mean
2.36
1.12
Goals Std
1.78
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
84.5%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
63.8%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
37.9%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.97
Goals against per game
1.50
86.5%
Conceding rate
72.4%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.46
77.1%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.50
25.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
58
1.97
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.67
Conceded Std
1.39
54.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
25.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.7%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.5%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
37.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.5%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
37.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
58
0.87
Result entropy
0.87
2.25
Goal Difference Std
2.55
13.29
Stability score
13.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
47
15
Lead Matches
21
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.87
33
Trailing Matches
12
18.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
6.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
58
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
11
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
0.00
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.96
1.92
Portability PPG Range
2.24
44.30
Portability Score
34.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-78.92
PPG-0.82
GF-1.15
GA0.47
PPG2.25
PPG-0.35
PPG1.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate15.6%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate15.7%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-1.15
Goals Std-0.66
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches16
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches26
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches21
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate6.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score9.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.94
Current Team ELO-78.92
Current Opponent ELO78.92
Current ELO Difference-157.8
Expected score-0.22
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.45

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Welling United

W
St Albans City1–3Welling United7 Nov · away
Pick: Welling United 38% · hit
W
Welling United4–0Carshalton Athletic31 Oct · home
Pick: Welling United 47% · hit
W
Welling United1–0Leatherhead27 Oct · home
Pick: Welling United 55% · hit
L
Chatham Town3–2Welling United24 Oct · away
Pick: Chatham Town 46% · hit
W
Welling United4–2Burgess Hill Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Welling United 55% · hit

Three Bridges

D
Three Bridges1–1Brentwood Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Brentwood Town 42% · missed
L
Maldon & Tiptree3–1Three Bridges31 Oct · away
Pick: Maldon & Tiptree 54% · hit
L
Dartford3–2Three Bridges24 Oct · away
Pick: Dartford 63% · hit
L
Three Bridges0–2Eastbourne Borough20 Oct · home
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 47% · hit
D
Three Bridges3–3Enfield Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Enfield Town 59% · missed

About this match

Welling United and Three Bridges meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Welling United win 58.3%, draw 20.2%, Three Bridges win 21.6%. The pick is Welling United win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.0%. Both teams to score: 57.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.