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Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 18 2026

Lewes vs Stanway Rovers

Lewes Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stanway Rovers Away · Elo 1,553
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lewes win
Lewes winPick
55.6%
Draw
19.6%
Stanway Rovers win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Lewes history66 matches
Stanway Rovers history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Lewes are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stanway Rovers are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,456. On rating alone Stanway Rovers would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Stanway Rovers score more

    1.26 goals a game over 66 matches for Lewes, against 1.61 over 49 for Stanway Rovers.

  • Stanway Rovers concede fewer

    Lewes concede 1.85 a game, Stanway Rovers 1.14.

  • Lewes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Lewes matches, against 57% for Stanway Rovers. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lewes
Stanway Rovers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.1
ELO
1553.5
66
ELO · Matches
49
1456.1
Current Team ELO
1553.5
1553.5
Current Opponent ELO
1456.1
-97.40
Current ELO Difference
97.40
0.36
Expected score
0.64
66
History Matches
49
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
47.54
Overperformance
54.20
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
49
1.23
PPG
1.76
34.8%
Win rate
51.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
22.4%
47.0%
Loss rate
26.5%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
71.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
23
1.55
PPG
1.65
45.5%
Win rate
47.8%
18.2%
Draw rate
21.7%
36.4%
Loss rate
30.4%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
69.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
33
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.61
68.2%
Scoring rate
77.6%
53.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.43
75.8%
Scoring rate
65.2%
57.6%
BTTS rate
39.1%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
49
1.26
Goals Mean
1.61
1.17
Goals Std
1.38
68.2%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.85
Goals against per game
1.14
78.8%
Conceding rate
59.2%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.30
78.8%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
66
History Matches
49
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.47
Conceded Std
1.25
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
49
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
2.08
Goal Difference Std
2.10
6.04
Stability score
6.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
39
15
Lead Matches
20
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.80
25
Trailing Matches
10
16.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
53
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
8
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.25
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.25
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.75
7
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.87
0.65
Portability PPG Range
2.00
64.95
Portability Score
36.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-97.40
PPG-0.53
GF-0.35
GA0.71
PPG1.50
PPG-0.11
PPG1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.71
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate17.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches17
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-0.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.60
Portability PPG Range-1.35
Portability Score28.39
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Current Team ELO-97.40
Current Opponent ELO97.40
Current ELO Difference-194.8
Expected score-0.27
History Matches17
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lewes

W
Dulwich Hamlet2–3Lewes7 Nov · away
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 55% · missed
L
Lewes1–2Dartford3 Nov · home
Pick: Dartford 43% · hit
D
Lewes2–2Wingate & Finchley31 Oct · home
Pick: Lewes 42% · missed
D
Lewes1–1Maldon & Tiptree17 Oct · home
Pick: Lewes 56% · missed
W
Three Bridges1–2Lewes13 Oct · away
Pick: Lewes 44% · hit

Stanway Rovers

D
Stanway Rovers0–0Whitehawk7 Nov · home
Pick: Stanway Rovers 45% · missed
L
Eastbourne Borough1–0Stanway Rovers3 Nov · away
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 65% · hit
L
Leatherhead7–2Stanway Rovers31 Oct · away
Pick: Leatherhead 64% · hit
W
Stanway Rovers3–0Cheshunt24 Oct · home
Pick: Cheshunt 42% · missed
L
Ramsgate2–0Stanway Rovers20 Oct · away
Pick: Ramsgate 59% · hit

About this match

Lewes and Stanway Rovers meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Lewes win 55.6%, draw 19.6%, Stanway Rovers win 24.7%. The pick is Lewes win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.