ScoreProb
1st Division South Africa Round 10 2026

Leicesterfield vs Casric Stars

Leicesterfield Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Casric Stars Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Casric Stars win
Leicesterfield win
25.5%
Draw
32.9%
Casric Stars winPick
41.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%

How much we know

Leicesterfield history31 matches
Casric Stars history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Casric Stars are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Casric Stars are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,456. On rating alone Casric Stars would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Casric Stars score far more

    0.87 goals a game over 31 matches for Leicesterfield, against 1.45 over 51 for Casric Stars.

  • Casric Stars concede fewer

    Leicesterfield concede 1.42 a game, Casric Stars 0.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Leicesterfield matches, against 43% for Casric Stars. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leicesterfield
Casric Stars
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.7
ELO
1563.6
31
ELO · Matches
51
1455.7
Current Team ELO
1563.6
1563.6
Current Opponent ELO
1455.7
-107.9
Current ELO Difference
107.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
31
History Matches
51
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
46.19
Overperformance
54.20
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
51
1.19
PPG
1.65
32.3%
Win rate
41.2%
22.6%
Draw rate
41.2%
45.2%
Loss rate
17.6%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
1.82
PPG
1.35
47.1%
Win rate
26.9%
41.2%
Draw rate
53.8%
11.8%
Loss rate
19.2%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
11.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
0.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.87
Goals for per game
1.45
61.3%
Scoring rate
80.4%
45.2%
BTTS rate
54.9%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.35
88.2%
Scoring rate
84.6%
64.7%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
31
History Matches
51
0.87
Goals Mean
1.45
0.79
Goals Std
1.09
61.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
25.8%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
0.90
77.4%
Conceding rate
64.7%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.04
64.7%
Conceding rate
69.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
31
History Matches
51
1.42
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.31
Conceded Std
0.82
32.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.6%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.9%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
38.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
38.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
51
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.36
3.52
Stability score
5.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
51
5
Lead Matches
20
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.73
12
Trailing Matches
7
33.3%
Non-loss rate
71.4%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
14
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
12
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.43
—
Portability PPG Range
1.06
—
Portability Score
53.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-107.9
PPG-0.45
GF-0.58
GA0.52
PPG0.00
PPG0.48
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate19.1%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate12.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score-2.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.38
Trailing Win Rate10.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-107.9
Current Opponent ELO107.9
Current ELO Difference-215.9
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leicesterfield

L
Highbury2–1Leicesterfield1 Nov · away
Pick: Highbury 56% · hit
L
Leicesterfield0–3Lerumo Lions24 Oct · home
Pick: Leicesterfield 43% · missed
L
Leicesterfield0–1NWU FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Leicesterfield 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Casric Stars

D
Casric Stars2–2NWU FC30 Oct · home
Pick: Casric Stars 66% · missed
D
Casric Stars1–1Highbury23 Oct · home
Pick: Casric Stars 51% · missed
W
The Bees0–1Casric Stars17 Oct · away
Pick: Casric Stars 48% · hit
L
Upington City2–1Casric Stars29 Aug · away
Pick: Casric Stars 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Leicesterfield and Casric Stars meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Leicesterfield win 25.5%, draw 32.9%, Casric Stars win 41.6%. The pick is Casric Stars win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.2%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.