ScoreProb
1st Division South Africa Round 10 2026

University of Pretoria vs Gomora United FC

University of Pretoria Home · Elo 1,457
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gomora United FC Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: University of Pretoria win
University of Pretoria winPick
43.1%
Draw
28.1%
Gomora United FC win
28.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.8%
Under 2.556.2%

How much we know

University of Pretoria history48 matches
Gomora United FC history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why University of Pretoria are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,457 against 1,458. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • University of Pretoria score more

    1.08 goals a game over 48 matches for University of Pretoria, against 0.91 over 32 for Gomora United FC.

  • Defences are close

    University of Pretoria concede 1.23 a game, Gomora United FC 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of University of Pretoria matches, against 38% for Gomora United FC. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
University of Pretoria
Gomora United FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.8
ELO
1458.1
48
ELO · Matches
32
1456.8
Current Team ELO
1458.1
1458.1
Current Opponent ELO
1456.8
-1.28
Current ELO Difference
1.28
0.50
Expected score
0.50
48
History Matches
32
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.08
46.29
Overperformance
45.31
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.70
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.90
Goals against per game
2.10
10.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
32
1.17
PPG
0.97
27.1%
Win rate
15.6%
35.4%
Draw rate
50.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
34.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
39.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
18
1.41
PPG
0.78
36.4%
Win rate
5.6%
31.8%
Draw rate
61.1%
31.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
22
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
0.91
68.8%
Scoring rate
68.8%
52.1%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.41
Goals for per game
0.94
77.3%
Scoring rate
72.2%
54.5%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
32
1.08
Goals Mean
0.91
1.19
Goals Std
0.76
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
22.9%
Scored 2+ rate
18.8%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
3.1%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.34
72.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.50
72.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
32
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.05
Conceded Std
1.29
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
32
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.34
0.86
Stability score
8.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
30
13
Lead Matches
7
53.8%
Lead Win Rate
28.6%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.48
12
Trailing Matches
8
25.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
16
0.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
20
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.07
Portability PPG Std
—
0.17
Portability PPG Range
—
87.70
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-1.28
PPG0.20
GF0.18
GA-0.11
PPG-1.00
PPG0.63
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.08
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.70
History Matches16
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-7.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate25.3%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO-1.28
Current Opponent ELO1.28
Current ELO Difference-2.57
Expected score0.00
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance0.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

University of Pretoria

L
Lerumo Lions3–1University of Pretoria31 Oct · away
Pick: Lerumo Lions 46% · hit
L
NWU FC2–1University of Pretoria24 Oct · away
Pick: NWU FC 41% · hit
L
University of Pretoria0–2Hungry Lions17 Oct · home
Pick: Hungry Lions 38% · hit
L
University of Pretoria0–2Midlands Wanderers29 Aug · home
Pick: University of Pretoria 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gomora United FC

L
Gomora United FC0–3Hope FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Gomora United FC 45% · missed
L
Magesi2–1Gomora United FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Magesi 59% · hit
L
Gomora United FC2–3Cape Town City16 Oct · home
Pick: Gomora United FC 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

University of Pretoria and Gomora United FC meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: University of Pretoria win 43.1%, draw 28.1%, Gomora United FC win 28.9%. The pick is University of Pretoria win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.8%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.