ScoreProb
1st Division South Africa Round 10 2026

Venda FC vs The Bees

Venda FC Home · Elo 1,465
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
The Bees Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Venda FC win
Venda FC winPick
52.7%
Draw
29.0%
The Bees win
18.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.7%
Under 2.557.3%

How much we know

Venda FC history46 matches
The Bees history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Venda FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,465 against 1,458. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • The Bees score more

    0.93 goals a game over 46 matches for Venda FC, against 1.16 over 32 for The Bees.

  • Venda FC concede fewer

    Venda FC concede 0.93 a game, The Bees 1.19.

  • The Bees games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Venda FC matches, against 47% for The Bees. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Venda FC
The Bees
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.8
ELO
1457.5
46
ELO · Matches
32
1464.8
Current Team ELO
1457.5
1457.5
Current Opponent ELO
1464.8
7.25
Current ELO Difference
-7.25
0.51
Expected score
0.49
46
History Matches
32
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.32
Overperformance
46.37
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
32
1.22
PPG
1.09
28.3%
Win rate
28.1%
37.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
46.9%
54.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
32.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
15
1.57
PPG
0.47
39.1%
Win rate
6.7%
39.1%
Draw rate
26.7%
21.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
23
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.93
Goals for per game
1.16
65.2%
Scoring rate
65.6%
45.7%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.22
Goals for per game
0.87
78.3%
Scoring rate
46.7%
52.2%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
32
0.93
Goals Mean
1.16
0.96
Goals Std
1.25
65.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
19.6%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
4.3%
Scored 3+ rate
9.4%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.93
Goals against per game
1.19
60.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.33
56.5%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
32
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.19
0.96
Conceded Std
0.95
21.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
32
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.29
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.57
Stability score
3.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
30
11
Lead Matches
10
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
8
35.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.02
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
20
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.54
19
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.08
Portability PPG Std
—
0.16
Portability PPG Range
—
86.42
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO7.25
PPG0.12
GF-0.22
GA-0.25
PPG1.00
PPG1.10
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate30.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.21
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches14
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-3.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate10.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO7.25
Current Opponent ELO-7.25
Current ELO Difference14.49
Expected score0.02
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance0.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Venda FC

D
Orbit College0–0Venda FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Orbit College 40% · missed
L
Hungry Lions1–0Venda FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Hungry Lions 41% · hit
L
Venda FC1–3Magesi17 Oct · home
Pick: Venda FC 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

The Bees

W
The Bees2–0Midlands Wanderers31 Oct · home
Pick: The Bees 49% · hit
L
The Bees0–1Casric Stars17 Oct · home
Pick: Casric Stars 48% · hit
L
Magesi1–0The Bees29 Aug · away
Pick: Magesi 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Venda FC and The Bees meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Venda FC win 52.7%, draw 29.0%, The Bees win 18.3%. The pick is Venda FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.7%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.