ScoreProb
1st Division South Africa Round 10 2026

Midlands Wanderers vs Lerumo Lions

Midlands Wanderers Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lerumo Lions Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lerumo Lions win
Midlands Wanderers win
32.1%
Draw
30.7%
Lerumo Lions winPick
37.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%

How much we know

Midlands Wanderers history31 matches
Lerumo Lions history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Lerumo Lions are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lerumo Lions are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,490 against 1,456. On rating alone Lerumo Lions would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Lerumo Lions score more

    0.87 goals a game over 31 matches for Midlands Wanderers, against 1.18 over 33 for Lerumo Lions.

  • Lerumo Lions concede fewer

    Midlands Wanderers concede 1.42 a game, Lerumo Lions 1.18.

  • Lerumo Lions games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Midlands Wanderers matches, against 48% for Lerumo Lions. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Midlands Wanderers
Lerumo Lions
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.9
ELO
1490.1
31
ELO · Matches
33
1455.9
Current Team ELO
1490.1
1490.1
Current Opponent ELO
1455.9
-34.16
Current ELO Difference
34.16
0.45
Expected score
0.55
31
History Matches
33
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.02
45.93
Overperformance
48.89
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
33
1.06
PPG
1.30
25.8%
Win rate
33.3%
29.0%
Draw rate
30.3%
45.2%
Loss rate
36.4%
61.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
35.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
12.1%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
17
1.50
PPG
1.12
37.5%
Win rate
23.5%
37.5%
Draw rate
41.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
35.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
5.9%
0.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
16
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.87
Goals for per game
1.18
64.5%
Scoring rate
72.7%
45.2%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.06
Goals for per game
0.88
68.8%
Scoring rate
70.6%
43.8%
BTTS rate
64.7%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
31
History Matches
33
0.87
Goals Mean
1.18
0.79
Goals Std
1.06
64.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
19.4%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
3.2%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.18
71.0%
Conceding rate
78.8%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.29
62.5%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
31
History Matches
33
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.41
Conceded Std
0.94
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
33
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.43
Goal Difference Std
1.58
2.82
Stability score
0.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
33
5
Lead Matches
10
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.77
12
Trailing Matches
7
16.7%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
14
Normal Rest History Matches
12
0.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
11
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviationPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-34.16
PPG-0.24
GF-0.31
GA0.24
PPG-1.00
PPG0.38
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate19.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Conceded 2+ rate8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.92
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score2.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-34.16
Current Opponent ELO34.16
Current ELO Difference-68.31
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-2.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Midlands Wanderers

L
The Bees2–0Midlands Wanderers31 Oct · away
Pick: The Bees 49% · hit
L
Midlands Wanderers0–1Upington City23 Oct · home
Pick: Upington City 38% · hit
W
University of Pretoria0–2Midlands Wanderers29 Aug · away
Pick: University of Pretoria 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lerumo Lions

W
Lerumo Lions3–1University of Pretoria31 Oct · home
Pick: Lerumo Lions 46% · hit
W
Leicesterfield0–3Lerumo Lions24 Oct · away
Pick: Leicesterfield 43% · missed
W
Highbury1–2Lerumo Lions16 Oct · away
Pick: Highbury 55% · missed
W
Lerumo Lions2–0NWU FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Lerumo Lions 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Midlands Wanderers and Lerumo Lions meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Midlands Wanderers win 32.1%, draw 30.7%, Lerumo Lions win 37.2%. The pick is Lerumo Lions win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.2%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.