ScoreProb
1st Division South Africa Round 10 2026

Magesi vs Orbit College

Magesi Home · Elo 1,464
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Orbit College Away · Elo 1,439
Peter Mokaba Stadium, Polokwane Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Magesi win
Magesi winPick
54.7%
Draw
25.0%
Orbit College win
20.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.0%
No60.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.6%
Under 2.561.4%

How much we know

Magesi history54 matches
Orbit College history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Magesi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Magesi are rated 25 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,464 against 1,439. On rating alone Magesi would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Magesi score more

    0.85 goals a game over 54 matches for Magesi, against 0.76 over 50 for Orbit College.

  • Defences are close

    Magesi concede 1.20 a game, Orbit College 1.16.

  • Orbit College games more often go over 2.5 goals

    30% of Magesi matches, against 38% for Orbit College. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Magesi
Orbit College
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.1
ELO
1438.8
54
ELO · Matches
50
1464.1
Current Team ELO
1438.8
1438.8
Current Opponent ELO
1464.1
25.31
Current ELO Difference
-25.31
0.54
Expected score
0.46
54
History Matches
50
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.45
Overperformance
45.59
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.60
0.70
Goals for per game
0.50
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
50
1.11
PPG
1.14
27.8%
Win rate
28.0%
27.8%
Draw rate
30.0%
44.4%
Loss rate
42.0%
64.8%
Over 1.5 rate
58.0%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.0%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
12.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.62
PPG
1.12
46.2%
Win rate
28.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
28.0%
30.8%
Loss rate
44.0%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
8.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
0.76
59.3%
Scoring rate
52.0%
38.9%
BTTS rate
36.0%
1.23
Goals for per game
0.76
76.9%
Scoring rate
48.0%
42.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
50
0.85
Goals Mean
0.76
0.97
Goals Std
0.86
59.3%
Scored 1+ rate
52.0%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
4.0%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.16
70.4%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.24
65.4%
Conceding rate
76.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
50
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.03
Conceded Std
1.08
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
40.7%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
40.7%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.43
2.42
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
49
12
Lead Matches
8
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.71
16
Trailing Matches
15
18.8%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
31
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
19
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.63
0.81
Portability PPG Range
1.53
55.14
Portability Score
44.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO25.31
PPG-0.03
GF0.09
GA0.04
PPG3.00
PPG0.50
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate3.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score0.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate5.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.72
Portability Score11.06
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO25.31
Current Opponent ELO-25.31
Current ELO Difference50.61
Expected score0.07
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Magesi

W
Magesi2–1Gomora United FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Magesi 59% · hit
W
Venda FC1–3Magesi17 Oct · away
Pick: Venda FC 37% · missed
W
Magesi1–0The Bees29 Aug · home
Pick: Magesi 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Orbit College

D
Orbit College0–0Venda FC30 Oct · home
Pick: Orbit College 40% · missed
L
Orbit College1–2Cape Town City23 Oct · home
Pick: Cape Town City 34% · hit
L
Upington City2–0Orbit College17 Oct · away
Pick: Upington City 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Magesi and Orbit College meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Peter Mokaba Stadium, Polokwane. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Magesi win 54.7%, draw 25.0%, Orbit College win 20.3%. The pick is Magesi win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.6%. Both teams to score: 40.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.