ScoreProb
1st Division South Africa Round 10 2026

NWU FC vs Highbury

NWU FC Home · Elo 1,498
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Highbury Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
NWU FC win
33.9%
DrawPick
36.0%
Highbury win
30.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.9%
Under 2.558.1%

How much we know

NWU FC history1 match
Highbury history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,498 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.00 goals a game over 1 matches for NWU FC, against 1.07 over 46 for Highbury.

  • Defences are close

    NWU FC concede 1.00 a game, Highbury 1.09.

  • Highbury games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of NWU FC matches, against 41% for Highbury. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
NWU FC
Highbury
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.7
ELO
1503.3
1
ELO · Matches
46
1497.7
Current Team ELO
1503.3
1503.3
Current Opponent ELO
1497.7
-5.60
Current ELO Difference
5.60
0.49
Expected score
0.51
1
History Matches
46
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
49.89
Overperformance
50.00
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
46
1.00
PPG
1.35
0.0%
Win rate
37.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
23.9%
0.0%
Loss rate
39.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
24
1.00
PPG
1.25
0.0%
Win rate
37.5%
100.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
1
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.07
100.0%
Scoring rate
69.6%
100.0%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.92
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
46
1.00
Goals Mean
1.07
—
Goals Std
1.05
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
21.7%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.09
100.0%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.17
100.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
46
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.09
—
Conceded Std
0.97
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.3%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
46
0.00
Result entropy
0.98
—
Goal Difference Std
1.57
100.0
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
0
Eligible Matches
43
0
Lead Matches
16
—
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.56
0
Trailing Matches
10
—
Non-loss rate
30.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
21
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
0
Long Rest History Matches
20
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
1
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.05
—
Portability PPG Range
0.10
—
Portability Score
90.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-5.60
PPG-0.35
GF-0.07
GA-0.09
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.25
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-45
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-45
Goals Mean-0.07
Scored 1+ rate30.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
History Matches-45
Conceded Mean-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
History Matches-45
Result entropy-0.98
Stability score98.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.82
Eligible Matches-43
Lead Matches-16
Trailing Matches-10
Halftime Coverage Matches-43
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Long Rest History Matches-20
Current Team ELO-5.60
Current Opponent ELO5.60
Current ELO Difference-11.21
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-45
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

NWU FC

D
Casric Stars2–2NWU FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Casric Stars 66% · missed
W
NWU FC2–1University of Pretoria24 Oct · home
Pick: NWU FC 41% · hit
W
Leicesterfield0–1NWU FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Leicesterfield 60% · missed
L
Lerumo Lions2–0NWU FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Lerumo Lions 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Highbury

W
Highbury2–1Leicesterfield1 Nov · home
Pick: Highbury 56% · hit
D
Casric Stars1–1Highbury23 Oct · away
Pick: Casric Stars 51% · missed
L
Highbury1–2Lerumo Lions16 Oct · home
Pick: Highbury 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

NWU FC and Highbury meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: NWU FC win 33.9%, draw 36.0%, Highbury win 30.2%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 41.9%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.