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Championship Scotland Round 15 2026

Livingston vs Morton

Livingston Home · Elo 1,509
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Morton Away · Elo 1,415
The Home of the Set Fare Arena, Livingston Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Livingston win
Livingston winPick
60.9%
Draw
20.5%
Morton win
18.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%

How much we know

Livingston history76 matches
Morton history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.9%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Livingston are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Livingston are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,509 against 1,415. On rating alone Livingston would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Livingston score more

    1.54 goals a game over 76 matches for Livingston, against 1.09 over 68 for Morton.

  • Livingston concede fewer

    Livingston concede 1.30 a game, Morton 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Livingston matches, against 51% for Morton. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Livingston
Morton@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.8
ELO
1415.5
76
ELO · Matches
68
1508.8
Current Team ELO
1415.5
1415.5
Current Opponent ELO
1508.8
93.38
Current ELO Difference
-93.38
0.63
Expected score
0.37
76
History Matches
68
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
50.67
Overperformance
45.47
0.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.00
2.40
Goals for per game
0.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
0.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.20
2.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.40
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
68
1.33
PPG
1.06
34.2%
Win rate
25.0%
30.3%
Draw rate
30.9%
35.5%
Loss rate
44.1%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.9%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
33
1.41
PPG
0.85
35.9%
Win rate
18.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
30.3%
30.8%
Loss rate
51.5%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
39
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.54
Goals for per game
1.09
72.4%
Scoring rate
64.7%
48.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.12
82.1%
Scoring rate
69.7%
53.8%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
76
History Matches
68
1.54
Goals Mean
1.09
1.48
Goals Std
1.00
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
64.7%
48.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
15.8%
Scored 3+ rate
7.4%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.54
68.4%
Conceding rate
77.9%
1.18
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
84.8%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
68
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.24
Conceded Std
1.27
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.1%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
2.11
Goal Difference Std
1.74
0.21
Stability score
2.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
68
27
Lead Matches
22
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
59.1%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
28
Trailing Matches
20
28.6%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
50
Normal Rest History Matches
56
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
19
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
10
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.73
2.45
Portability PPG Range
1.80
41.84
Portability Score
40.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO93.38
PPG0.27
GF0.45
GA-0.24
PPG2.00
PPG0.56
PPG2.00
PPG2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate7.7%
Scored 2+ rate13.4%
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.74
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches8
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score-2.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.28
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate18.7%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range0.65
Portability Score1.19
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO93.38
Current Opponent ELO-93.38
Current ELO Difference186.8
Expected score0.26
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.67

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Livingston

D
Inverness CT1–1Livingston7 Nov · away
Pick: Livingston 47% · missed
W
Spartans0–2Livingston3 Nov · away
Pick: Spartans 47% · missed
W
Stenhousemuir0–3Livingston30 Oct · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 49% · missed
W
Livingston1–0Arbroath24 Oct · home
Pick: Livingston 54% · hit
D
Dunfermline0–0Livingston17 Oct · away
Pick: Livingston 42% · missed

Morton

W
Morton4–3Stenhousemuir7 Nov · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 62% · missed
L
Morton0–1Kelty Hearts3 Nov · home
Pick: Kelty Hearts 41% · hit
W
Partick2–3Morton31 Oct · away
Pick: Partick 66% · missed
W
Morton2–0Queen's Park17 Oct · home
Pick: Morton 41% · hit
D
Ayr Utd1–1Morton29 Aug · away
Pick: Ayr Utd 55% · missed

About this match

Livingston and Morton meet in Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Home of the Set Fare Arena, Livingston. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Livingston win 60.9%, draw 20.5%, Morton win 18.6%. The pick is Livingston win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.