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Championship Scotland Round 15 2026

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers

Ayr Utd Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Raith Rovers Away · Elo 1,554
Somerset Park, Ayr Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Raith Rovers win
Ayr Utd win
36.3%
Draw
27.0%
Raith Rovers winPick
36.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Ayr Utd history77 matches
Raith Rovers history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Raith Rovers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Raith Rovers are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,518. On rating alone Raith Rovers would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.45 goals a game over 77 matches for Ayr Utd, against 1.53 over 74 for Raith Rovers.

  • Raith Rovers concede fewer

    Ayr Utd concede 1.29 a game, Raith Rovers 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Ayr Utd matches, against 46% for Raith Rovers. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ayr Utd
Raith Rovers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.5
ELO
1553.9
77
ELO · Matches
74
1517.5
Current Team ELO
1553.9
1553.9
Current Opponent ELO
1517.5
-36.40
Current ELO Difference
36.40
0.45
Expected score
0.55
77
History Matches
74
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.80
Overperformance
53.00
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
74
1.36
PPG
1.53
36.4%
Win rate
41.9%
27.3%
Draw rate
27.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
31.1%
77.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
50.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
24.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
36
1.61
PPG
1.11
44.7%
Win rate
25.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
36.1%
28.9%
Loss rate
38.9%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
38
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.53
75.3%
Scoring rate
67.6%
54.5%
BTTS rate
41.9%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.06
76.3%
Scoring rate
52.8%
52.6%
BTTS rate
38.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
77
History Matches
74
1.45
Goals Mean
1.53
1.28
Goals Std
1.54
75.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.7%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.14
74.0%
Conceding rate
60.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.19
71.1%
Conceding rate
61.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
77
History Matches
74
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.07
Conceded Std
1.19
39.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.2%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
74
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.74
Goal Difference Std
2.06
0.78
Stability score
1.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
74
28
Lead Matches
25
67.9%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
21
31.8%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
58
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
11
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.92
Portability PPG Range
1.08
44.47
Portability Score
55.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.40
PPG-0.16
GF-0.07
GA0.15
PPG-1.00
PPG0.49
PPG-0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate5.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-0.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate8.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-11.41
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO-36.40
Current Opponent ELO36.40
Current ELO Difference-72.80
Expected score-0.10
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ayr Utd

L
Arbroath4–1Ayr Utd7 Nov · away
Pick: Ayr Utd 43% · missed
W
Annan Athletic0–2Ayr Utd3 Nov · away
Pick: Ayr Utd 46% · hit
W
Ayr Utd3–2Queen's Park31 Oct · home
Pick: Ayr Utd 57% · hit
L
Ayr Utd0–1Partick16 Oct · home
Pick: Partick 42% · hit
D
Ayr Utd1–1Morton29 Aug · home
Pick: Ayr Utd 55% · missed

Raith Rovers

D
Raith Rovers0–0Dunfermline6 Nov · home
Pick: Raith Rovers 51% · missed
W
Arbroath0–4Raith Rovers31 Oct · away
Pick: Raith Rovers 44% · hit
L
Raith Rovers0–2Inverness CT24 Oct · home
Pick: Raith Rovers 44% · missed
D
Stenhousemuir1–1Raith Rovers17 Oct · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers meet in Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Somerset Park, Ayr. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ayr Utd win 36.3%, draw 27.0%, Raith Rovers win 36.7%. The pick is Raith Rovers win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.