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Championship Scotland Round 15 2026

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park

Stenhousemuir Home · Elo 1,630
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Queen's Park Away · Elo 1,494
Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stenhousemuir win
Stenhousemuir winPick
64.4%
Draw
18.7%
Queen's Park win
16.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Stenhousemuir history80 matches
Queen's Park history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.4%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Stenhousemuir are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stenhousemuir are rated 136 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,630 against 1,494. On rating alone Stenhousemuir would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Stenhousemuir score more

    1.53 goals a game over 80 matches for Stenhousemuir, against 1.18 over 74 for Queen's Park.

  • Stenhousemuir concede fewer

    Stenhousemuir concede 0.91 a game, Queen's Park 1.61.

  • Queen's Park games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Stenhousemuir matches, against 54% for Queen's Park. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stenhousemuir
Queen's Park@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.2
ELO
1494.1
80
ELO · Matches
74
1630.2
Current Team ELO
1494.1
1494.1
Current Opponent ELO
1630.2
136.1
Current ELO Difference
-136.1
0.69
Expected score
0.31
80
History Matches
74
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
56.68
Overperformance
49.68
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
74
1.83
PPG
1.14
51.3%
Win rate
28.4%
28.8%
Draw rate
28.4%
20.0%
Loss rate
43.2%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
38
1.95
PPG
1.11
54.8%
Win rate
26.3%
31.0%
Draw rate
31.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
42.1%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
42
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.18
77.5%
Scoring rate
67.6%
43.8%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.21
81.0%
Scoring rate
71.1%
40.5%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
80
History Matches
74
1.53
Goals Mean
1.18
1.19
Goals Std
1.18
77.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.7%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.91
Goals against per game
1.61
56.3%
Conceding rate
75.7%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.61
45.2%
Conceding rate
71.1%
0.33
Goals against per game
2.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
74
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.05
Conceded Std
1.57
22.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.9%
8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.9%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
74
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.74
Goal Difference Std
2.16
6.90
Stability score
1.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
74
34
Lead Matches
17
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.71
15
Trailing Matches
25
26.7%
Non-loss rate
12.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
66
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
11
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
9
Competition Season Count
10
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.83
1.67
Portability PPG Range
2.33
48.01
Portability Score
37.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO136.1
PPG0.69
GF0.35
GA-0.70
PPG2.33
PPG0.85
PPG1.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate25.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate9.9%
Scored 2+ rate19.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.58
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.70
Conceded Std-0.52
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score4.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.07
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate23.5%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate14.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.67
Portability Score10.28
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.86
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO136.1
Current Opponent ELO-136.1
Current ELO Difference272.3
Expected score0.37
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stenhousemuir

L
Morton4–3Stenhousemuir7 Nov · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 62% · missed
W
Stenhousemuir4–1Berwick Rangers3 Nov · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 71% · hit
L
Stenhousemuir0–3Livingston30 Oct · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 49% · missed
L
Stenhousemuir0–1Dunfermline27 Oct · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 57% · missed
L
Partick3–0Stenhousemuir24 Oct · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 37% · missed

Queen's Park

L
Queen's Park0–1Partick7 Nov · home
Pick: Partick 54% · hit
L
Ayr Utd3–2Queen's Park31 Oct · away
Pick: Ayr Utd 57% · hit
L
Queen's Park0–1Dunfermline24 Oct · home
Pick: Dunfermline 47% · hit
L
Morton2–0Queen's Park17 Oct · away
Pick: Morton 41% · hit
W
Queen's Park2–1Inverness CT13 Oct · home
Pick: Inverness CT 50% · missed

About this match

Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park meet in Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Stenhousemuir win 64.4%, draw 18.7%, Queen's Park win 16.9%. The pick is Stenhousemuir win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.