Partick vs Inverness CT
Match result probability Model pick: Partick win
Partick winPick
39.2%
Draw
30.1%
Inverness CT win
30.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.4%
No52.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%
How much we know
Partick history80 matches
Inverness CT history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Partick
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Partick are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Inverness CT are rated 36 Elo points higher
Elo 1,652 against 1,616. On rating alone Inverness CT would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Inverness CT score more
1.51 goals a game over 80 matches for Partick, against 1.89 over 80 for Inverness CT.
-
Inverness CT concede fewer
Partick concede 1.05 a game, Inverness CT 0.94.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
44% of Partick matches, against 46% for Inverness CT. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Inverness CT@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1615.9
ELO
1652.3
80
ELO · Matches
80
1615.9
Current Team ELO
1652.3
1652.3
Current Opponent ELO
1615.9
-36.33
Current ELO Difference
36.33
0.45
Expected score
0.55
80
History Matches
80
0.07
Residual Mean
0.09
55.35
Overperformance
56.80
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.17
Overall performance9 signals 90
80
Matches
80
1.74
PPG
1.99
46.3%
Win rate
57.5%
35.0%
Draw rate
26.3%
18.8%
Loss rate
16.3%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.3%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals 100
38
Matches
43
2.00
PPG
1.88
55.3%
Win rate
53.5%
34.2%
Draw rate
27.9%
10.5%
Loss rate
18.6%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.5%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
38
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.89
78.8%
Scoring rate
86.3%
52.5%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.84
81.6%
Scoring rate
86.0%
52.6%
BTTS rate
51.2%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
80
History Matches
80
1.51
Goals Mean
1.89
1.19
Goals Std
1.64
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
15.0%
Scored 3+ rate
27.5%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.05
Goals against per game
0.94
63.8%
Conceding rate
56.3%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.12
60.5%
Conceding rate
55.8%
0.33
Goals against per game
0.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
33.3%
80
History Matches
80
1.05
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.09
Conceded Std
1.23
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.5%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
36.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.2%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
36.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.2%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
36.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
80
History Matches
80
0.94
Result entropy
0.88
1.66
Goal Difference Std
2.17
5.52
Stability score
12.20
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
80
Eligible Matches
80
36
Lead Matches
34
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
21
Trailing Matches
14
52.4%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
19.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.85
Rest days
84.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
60
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
15
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.55
47.04
Portability Score
51.36
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
80
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.33
PPG-0.25
GF-0.38
GA0.11
PPG1.33
PPG0.12
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate2.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.17
History Matches0
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.51
Stability score-6.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-4.32
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-36.33
Current Opponent ELO36.33
Current ELO Difference-72.67
Expected score-0.10
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Partick
W
Queen's Park0–1Partick7 Nov · away
Pick: Partick 54% · hit W
Edinburgh City0–3Partick3 Nov · away
Pick: Partick 48% · hit L
Partick2–3Morton31 Oct · home
Pick: Partick 66% · missed W
Partick3–0Stenhousemuir24 Oct · home
Pick: Stenhousemuir 37% · missed D
Dunfermline1–1Partick20 Oct · away
Pick: Partick 47% · missed Inverness CT
D
Inverness CT1–1Livingston7 Nov · home
Pick: Livingston 47% · missed W
Inverness CT1–0Montrose3 Nov · home
Pick: Inverness CT 56% · hit L
Dunfermline5–1Inverness CT31 Oct · away
Pick: Inverness CT 40% · missed W
Raith Rovers0–2Inverness CT24 Oct · away
Pick: Raith Rovers 44% · missed W
Inverness CT2–0Arbroath17 Oct · home
Pick: Inverness CT 53% · hit About this match
Partick and Inverness CT meet in Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Firhill Stadium, Glasgow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Partick win 39.2%, draw 30.1%, Inverness CT win 30.7%. The pick is Partick win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.