Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Rostov W
Match result probability Model pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W win
Lokomotiv Moskva W winPick
84.1%
Draw
11.0%
Rostov W win
5.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes32.4%
No67.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%
How much we know
Lokomotiv Moskva W history38 matches
Rostov W history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Lokomotiv Moskva W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (84.1%). Picks in that band won 83.1% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 177 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.
Why Lokomotiv Moskva W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Lokomotiv Moskva W are rated 198 Elo points higher
Elo 1,568 against 1,370. On rating alone Lokomotiv Moskva W would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.
-
Lokomotiv Moskva W score far more
1.71 goals a game over 38 matches for Lokomotiv Moskva W, against 0.36 over 39 for Rostov W.
-
Lokomotiv Moskva W concede fewer
Lokomotiv Moskva W concede 0.79 a game, Rostov W 1.97.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
39% of Lokomotiv Moskva W matches, against 41% for Rostov W. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rostov W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1567.5
ELO
1369.9
38
ELO · Matches
39
1567.5
Current Team ELO
1369.9
1369.9
Current Opponent ELO
1567.5
197.7
Current ELO Difference
-197.7
0.76
Expected score
0.24
38
History Matches
39
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.17
55.77
Overperformance
39.04
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.40
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.50
1.50
Goals for per game
0.10
0.40
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.10
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.30
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.61
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals 90
38
Matches
39
1.79
PPG
0.56
55.3%
Win rate
12.8%
13.2%
Draw rate
17.9%
31.6%
Loss rate
69.2%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
39.5%
Over 2.5 rate
41.0%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
20
1.68
PPG
0.65
52.6%
Win rate
20.0%
10.5%
Draw rate
5.0%
36.8%
Loss rate
75.0%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
19
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.71
Goals for per game
0.36
76.3%
Scoring rate
25.6%
23.7%
BTTS rate
17.9%
1.89
Goals for per game
0.45
73.7%
Scoring rate
30.0%
21.1%
BTTS rate
20.0%
1.79
Goals for per game
0.20
85.7%
Scoring rate
13.3%
28.6%
BTTS rate
0.0%
38
History Matches
39
1.71
Goals Mean
0.36
1.65
Goals Std
0.66
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
25.6%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
10.3%
23.7%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
0.45
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.79
Goals against per game
1.97
44.7%
Conceding rate
82.1%
0.79
Goals against per game
2.20
47.4%
Conceding rate
85.0%
0.57
Goals against per game
2.20
35.7%
Conceding rate
73.3%
38
History Matches
39
0.79
Conceded Mean
1.97
1.06
Conceded Std
1.51
23.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.0%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.8%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
55.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
74.4%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
70.0%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
86.7%
55.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
74.4%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
70.0%
55.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
38
History Matches
39
0.87
Result entropy
0.75
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.82
12.74
Stability score
24.79
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
38
Eligible Matches
39
22
Lead Matches
3
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
26
0.0%
Non-loss rate
11.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.21
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.15
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
96.94
Rest days
98.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.36
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.71
Competition & season17 signals 170
14
Matches
15
1.93
PPG
0.53
57.1%
Win rate
13.3%
21.4%
Draw rate
13.3%
21.4%
Loss rate
73.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
14
Current Competition Matches
15
1.93
Current Competition PPG
0.53
1.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.22
Portability PPG Range
0.05
81.95
Portability Score
95.24
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
38
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO197.7
PPG1.23
GF1.35
GA-1.18
PPG1.40
PPG1.03
PPG1.20
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate37.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.51
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate37.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.44
History Matches-1
Goals Mean1.35
Goals Std0.99
Scored 1+ rate50.7%
Scored 2+ rate34.5%
Scored 3+ rate23.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.82
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-1.18
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.35
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score-12.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches-21
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.21
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-13.29
Rest days-1.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.58
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.05
Current Team ELO197.7
Current Opponent ELO-197.7
Current ELO Difference395.4
Expected score0.51
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.25
Overperformance16.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lokomotiv Moskva W
W
Lokomotiv Moskva W2–0Spartak Moskva W7 Nov · home
Pick: Spartak Moskva W 39% · missed L
Zenit W3–1Lokomotiv Moskva W31 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit W 55% · hit W
Krasnodar W0–1Lokomotiv Moskva W24 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 53% · hit D
Lokomotiv Moskva W1–1Dinamo Moskva W18 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 58% · missed W
Lokomotiv Moskva W2–1Chertanovo W29 Aug · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva W 68% · hit Rostov W
L
Rostov W0–4Krylya Sovetov W7 Nov · home
Pick: Krylya Sovetov W 70% · hit L
Chertanovo W4–0Rostov W31 Oct · away
Pick: Chertanovo W 65% · hit D
Rostov W1–1Rubin Kazan W24 Oct · home
Pick: Rubin Kazan W 53% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Lokomotiv Moskva W and Rostov W meet in Supreme Division Women on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Sapsan Arena, Moscow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Lokomotiv Moskva W win 84.1%, draw 11.0%, Rostov W win 5.0%. The pick is Lokomotiv Moskva W win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 32.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.