Spartak Moskva W vs CSKA Moskva W
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Moskva W win
Spartak Moskva W winPick
41.5%
Draw
30.3%
CSKA Moskva W win
28.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.7%
No52.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.0%
Under 2.552.0%
How much we know
Spartak Moskva W history40 matches
CSKA Moskva W history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Spartak Moskva W
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Spartak Moskva W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,673 against 1,660. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.48 goals a game over 40 matches for Spartak Moskva W, against 2.30 over 40 for CSKA Moskva W.
-
CSKA Moskva W concede fewer
Spartak Moskva W concede 0.55 a game, CSKA Moskva W 0.48.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
48% of Spartak Moskva W matches, against 55% for CSKA Moskva W. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CSKA Moskva W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1672.7
ELO
1659.6
40
ELO · Matches
40
1672.7
Current Team ELO
1659.6
1659.6
Current Opponent ELO
1672.7
13.13
Current ELO Difference
-13.13
0.52
Expected score
0.48
40
History Matches
40
0.22
Residual Mean
0.20
64.35
Overperformance
63.09
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
2.20
1.90
Goals for per game
2.00
0.70
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
40
Matches
40
2.48
PPG
2.43
75.0%
Win rate
77.5%
22.5%
Draw rate
10.0%
2.5%
Loss rate
12.5%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
20
2.43
PPG
2.30
71.4%
Win rate
75.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
5.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
21
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.48
Goals for per game
2.30
95.0%
Scoring rate
82.5%
42.5%
BTTS rate
27.5%
2.52
Goals for per game
2.15
95.2%
Scoring rate
80.0%
38.1%
BTTS rate
25.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
2.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
26.7%
40
History Matches
40
2.48
Goals Mean
2.30
1.66
Goals Std
1.68
95.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
70.0%
42.5%
Scored 3+ rate
45.0%
2.52
Venue Goals Mean
2.15
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.55
Goals against per game
0.48
42.5%
Conceding rate
40.0%
0.52
Goals against per game
0.60
38.1%
Conceding rate
45.0%
0.73
Goals against per game
0.53
60.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
40
History Matches
40
0.55
Conceded Mean
0.48
0.77
Conceded Std
0.63
7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
7.5%
5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.52
Venue Conceded Mean
0.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
57.5%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
5.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
61.9%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
57.5%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
5.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
61.9%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
57.5%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
40
History Matches
40
0.59
Result entropy
0.63
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.92
41.42
Stability score
37.40
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
40
Eligible Matches
40
17
Lead Matches
27
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.95
4
Trailing Matches
4
75.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.18
1.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
97.75
Rest days
96.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
12
2.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.58
27
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
15
Matches
15
2.27
PPG
2.47
66.7%
Win rate
80.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
6.7%
6.7%
Loss rate
13.3%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
15
Current Competition Matches
15
2.27
Current Competition PPG
2.47
1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.87
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.03
72.18
Portability Score
96.77
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
40
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO13.13
PPG0.05
GF0.18
GA0.08
PPG-0.20
PPG0.13
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate12.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score4.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate7.4%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.50
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.27
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-24.60
Rest days0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO13.13
Current Opponent ELO-13.13
Current ELO Difference26.27
Expected score0.04
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Spartak Moskva W
L
Lokomotiv Moskva W2–0Spartak Moskva W7 Nov · away
Pick: Spartak Moskva W 39% · missed W
Krylya Sovetov W0–2Spartak Moskva W31 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Moskva W 51% · hit W
Spartak Moskva W3–1Chertanovo W24 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Moskva W 75% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
CSKA Moskva W
D
Zenit W0–0CSKA Moskva W7 Nov · away
Pick: Zenit W 47% · missed W
CSKA Moskva W4–2Krasnodar W30 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 82% · hit W
Dinamo Moskva W1–2CSKA Moskva W24 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 60% · hit W
CSKA Moskva W2–0Ryazan W18 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 86% · hit W
CSKA Moskva W4–1Rubin Kazan W29 Aug · home
Pick: CSKA Moskva W 81% · hit About this match
Spartak Moskva W and CSKA Moskva W meet in Supreme Division Women on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Cherenkov Academy Stadium, Moscow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Spartak Moskva W win 41.5%, draw 30.3%, CSKA Moskva W win 28.2%. The pick is Spartak Moskva W win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.0%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.