Maidstone Utd vs Maidenhead
Match result probability Model pick: Maidstone Utd win
Maidstone Utd winPick
41.7%
Draw
27.0%
Maidenhead win
31.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.0%
No51.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%
How much we know
Maidstone Utd history80 matches
Maidenhead history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Maidstone Utd
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Maidstone Utd are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Maidstone Utd are rated 106 Elo points higher
Elo 1,626 against 1,520. On rating alone Maidstone Utd would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Maidstone Utd score more
1.64 goals a game over 80 matches for Maidstone Utd, against 1.28 over 82 for Maidenhead.
-
Maidstone Utd concede fewer
Maidstone Utd concede 0.96 a game, Maidenhead 1.07.
-
Maidstone Utd games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of Maidstone Utd matches, against 41% for Maidenhead. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maidenhead@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1625.7
ELO
1520.1
80
ELO · Matches
82
1625.7
Current Team ELO
1520.1
1520.1
Current Opponent ELO
1625.7
105.6
Current ELO Difference
-105.6
0.65
Expected score
0.35
80
History Matches
82
0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
55.63
Overperformance
51.09
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
0.90
2.80
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals 90
80
Matches
82
1.71
PPG
1.49
48.8%
Win rate
41.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
24.4%
26.3%
Loss rate
34.1%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.5%
22.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
40
2.00
PPG
1.43
59.5%
Win rate
37.5%
21.6%
Draw rate
30.0%
18.9%
Loss rate
32.5%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
52.5%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
22.5%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
37
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.64
Goals for per game
1.28
73.8%
Scoring rate
68.3%
42.5%
BTTS rate
41.5%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.03
81.1%
Scoring rate
55.0%
40.5%
BTTS rate
27.5%
80
History Matches
82
1.64
Goals Mean
1.28
1.52
Goals Std
1.22
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.3%
45.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
27.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.96
Goals against per game
1.07
58.8%
Conceding rate
64.6%
0.78
Goals against per game
0.78
51.4%
Conceding rate
57.5%
80
History Matches
82
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.04
Conceded Std
1.11
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.0%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.5%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.5%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
80
History Matches
82
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.76
4.61
Stability score
2.05
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
80
Eligible Matches
81
31
Lead Matches
25
74.2%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.89
14
Trailing Matches
22
14.3%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
67
Normal Rest History Matches
68
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
8
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.44
Portability PPG Range
1.83
48.89
Portability Score
45.60
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
80
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO105.6
PPG0.22
GF0.36
GA-0.11
PPG0.58
PPG1.00
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score2.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score3.29
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO105.6
Current Opponent ELO-105.6
Current ELO Difference211.3
Expected score0.29
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.48
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Maidstone Utd
W
Hemel Hempstead Town1–2Maidstone Utd7 Nov · away
Pick: Hemel Hempstead Town 38% · missed W
Maidstone Utd2–1Slough Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Maidstone Utd 71% · hit L
Maidstone Utd1–3Ebbsfleet United27 Oct · home
Pick: Maidstone Utd 47% · missed D
Torquay1–1Maidstone Utd24 Oct · away
Pick: Maidstone Utd 40% · missed W
Maidstone Utd2–1Maidenhead17 Oct · home
Pick: Maidstone Utd 51% · hit Maidenhead
D
Hampton & Richmond1–1Maidenhead7 Nov · away
Pick: Maidenhead 52% · missed D
Maidenhead0–0Dagenham & Redbridge31 Oct · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40% · missed D
Maidenhead1–1Horsham27 Oct · home
Pick: Maidenhead 36% · missed L
Ebbsfleet United4–0Maidenhead24 Oct · away
Pick: Ebbsfleet United 38% · hit L
Maidstone Utd2–1Maidenhead17 Oct · away
Pick: Maidstone Utd 51% · hit About this match
Maidstone Utd and Maidenhead meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Gallagher Stadium, Maidstone. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Maidstone Utd win 41.7%, draw 27.0%, Maidenhead win 31.3%. The pick is Maidstone Utd win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.