ScoreProb
NB III - Northeast Hungary Northeast - 15 2026

Mátészalka vs Debrecen II

Mátészalka Home · Elo 1,443
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Debrecen II Away · Elo 1,562
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mátészalka win
Mátészalka winPick
44.0%
Draw
22.8%
Debrecen II win
33.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%

How much we know

Mátészalka history20 matches
Debrecen II history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mátészalka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Debrecen II are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,443. On rating alone Debrecen II would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Debrecen II score more

    1.40 goals a game over 20 matches for Mátészalka, against 2.04 over 46 for Debrecen II.

  • Debrecen II concede fewer

    Mátészalka concede 1.75 a game, Debrecen II 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Mátészalka matches, against 65% for Debrecen II. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mátészalka
Debrecen II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1442.7
ELO
1561.9
20
ELO · Matches
46
1442.7
Current Team ELO
1561.9
1561.9
Current Opponent ELO
1442.7
-119.2
Current ELO Difference
119.2
0.33
Expected score
0.67
20
History Matches
46
-0.15
Residual Mean
0.07
42.57
Overperformance
54.82
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
20
Matches
46
0.80
PPG
1.72
25.0%
Win rate
47.8%
5.0%
Draw rate
28.3%
70.0%
Loss rate
23.9%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
22
0.33
PPG
1.50
11.1%
Win rate
40.9%
0.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
88.9%
Loss rate
31.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
9
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
2.04
65.0%
Scoring rate
84.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.7%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.91
55.6%
Scoring rate
86.4%
44.4%
BTTS rate
59.1%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
20
History Matches
46
1.40
Goals Mean
2.04
1.32
Goals Std
1.56
65.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.8%
45.0%
Scored 2+ rate
54.3%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
37.0%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.30
85.0%
Conceding rate
65.2%
1.78
Goals against per game
1.55
88.9%
Conceding rate
68.2%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
20
History Matches
46
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.22
Conceded Std
1.25
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.3%
30.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.4%
1.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
20
History Matches
46
0.68
Result entropy
0.96
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.03
32.09
Stability score
4.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
45
6
Lead Matches
18
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.93
8
Trailing Matches
11
0.0%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.90
Rest days
79.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
23
0.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
6
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.52
Portability PPG Range
0.86
39.69
Portability Score
57.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
20
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-119.2
PPG-0.92
GF-0.64
GA0.45
PPG0.75
PPG-1.17
PPG1.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate19.8%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate30.8%
History Matches-26
Goals Mean-0.64
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches-26
Conceded Mean0.45
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate12.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches-26
Result entropy-0.28
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score27.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches-25
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.45
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-25
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range0.66
Portability Score-18.28
Rest days-1.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.26
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-119.2
Current Opponent ELO119.2
Current ELO Difference-238.4
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-26
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-12.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mátészalka

W
Nyiregyhaza II1–3Mátészalka1 Nov · away
Pick: Nyiregyhaza II 42% · missed
W
Mátészalka4–0Tarpa24 Oct · home
Pick: Mátészalka 50% · hit
D
Tiszafuredi VSE0–0Mátészalka17 Oct · away
Pick: Tiszafuredi VSE 52% · missed
L
Füzesabony3–0Mátészalka29 Aug · away
Pick: Füzesabony 45% · hit
L
Mátészalka0–3Diósgyőr II26 Aug · home
Pick: Mátészalka 48% · missed

Debrecen II

W
Debrecen II2–1Gödöllő1 Nov · home
Pick: Debrecen II 54% · hit
W
Kisvárda II0–1Debrecen II25 Oct · away
Pick: Kisvárda II 54% · missed
L
Ózd Sajóvölgye5–2Debrecen II29 Aug · away
Pick: Ózd Sajóvölgye 46% · hit
W
Debrecen II5–2Eger26 Aug · home
Pick: Debrecen II 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mátészalka and Debrecen II meet in NB III - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mátészalka win 44.0%, draw 22.8%, Debrecen II win 33.2%. The pick is Mátészalka win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 57.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.