ScoreProb
NB III - Northeast Hungary Northeast - 15 2026

Salgótarjáni BTC vs Ózd Sajóvölgye

Salgótarjáni BTC Home · Elo 1,424
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ózd Sajóvölgye Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ózd Sajóvölgye win
Salgótarjáni BTC win
21.8%
Draw
26.1%
Ózd Sajóvölgye winPick
52.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%

How much we know

Salgótarjáni BTC history19 matches
Ózd Sajóvölgye history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ózd Sajóvölgye are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ózd Sajóvölgye are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,495 against 1,424. On rating alone Ózd Sajóvölgye would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Ózd Sajóvölgye score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 19 matches for Salgótarjáni BTC, against 1.77 over 35 for Ózd Sajóvölgye.

  • Ózd Sajóvölgye concede fewer

    Salgótarjáni BTC concede 2.21 a game, Ózd Sajóvölgye 1.97.

  • Ózd Sajóvölgye games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Salgótarjáni BTC matches, against 60% for Ózd Sajóvölgye. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Salgótarjáni BTC
Ózd Sajóvölgye
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1424.2
ELO
1495.5
19
ELO · Matches
35
1424.2
Current Team ELO
1495.5
1495.5
Current Opponent ELO
1424.2
-71.27
Current ELO Difference
71.27
0.40
Expected score
0.60
19
History Matches
35
-0.19
Residual Mean
-0.02
40.59
Overperformance
48.88
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
1.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.46
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
35
0.68
PPG
1.23
15.8%
Win rate
34.3%
21.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
63.2%
Loss rate
45.7%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
20
0.60
PPG
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
25.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
10
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.77
68.4%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
70.0%
BTTS rate
55.0%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
19
History Matches
35
1.00
Goals Mean
1.77
1.03
Goals Std
1.64
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
15.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.6%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.21
Goals against per game
1.97
89.5%
Conceding rate
82.9%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.25
90.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
19
History Matches
35
2.21
Conceded Mean
1.97
1.32
Conceded Std
1.72
73.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.4%
31.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.7%
2.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
35
0.83
Result entropy
0.95
1.58
Goal Difference Std
2.35
17.19
Stability score
4.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
33
2
Lead Matches
9
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
10
15.4%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.11
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
11
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
7
Long Rest History Matches
12
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
2.25
25.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.64
0.02
Portability PPG Range
1.29
98.11
Portability Score
43.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-71.27
PPG-0.54
GF-0.77
GA0.24
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.77
Goals Std-0.61
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.33
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate22.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.78
Stability score12.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.04
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate5.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.63
Portability PPG Range-1.27
Portability Score54.36
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-71.27
Current Opponent ELO71.27
Current ELO Difference-142.5
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-8.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.39

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Salgótarjáni BTC

W
Salgótarjáni BTC1–0Eger24 Oct · home
Pick: Eger 57% · missed
L
Tiszafuredi VSE2–1Salgótarjáni BTC29 Aug · away
Pick: Tiszafuredi VSE 60% · hit
L
Salgótarjáni BTC0–3Hajdúnánás26 Aug · home
Pick: Salgótarjáni BTC 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ózd Sajóvölgye

W
Ózd Sajóvölgye3–0Eger31 Oct · home
Pick: Ózd Sajóvölgye 40% · hit
W
DEAC0–3Ózd Sajóvölgye24 Oct · away
Pick: DEAC 67% · missed
W
Ózd Sajóvölgye4–2Füzesabony17 Oct · home
Pick: Ózd Sajóvölgye 47% · hit
W
Ózd Sajóvölgye5–2Debrecen II29 Aug · home
Pick: Ózd Sajóvölgye 46% · hit
W
Nyiregyhaza II0–5Ózd Sajóvölgye26 Aug · away
Pick: Ózd Sajóvölgye 44% · hit

About this match

Salgótarjáni BTC and Ózd Sajóvölgye meet in NB III - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Salgótarjáni BTC win 21.8%, draw 26.1%, Ózd Sajóvölgye win 52.1%. The pick is Ózd Sajóvölgye win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.