Mingəçevir vs Şahdağ
Match result probability Model pick: Mingəçevir win
Mingəçevir winPick
53.7%
Draw
25.1%
Şahdağ win
21.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.4%
No50.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%
How much we know
Mingəçevir history45 matches
Şahdağ history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Mingəçevir
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Mingəçevir are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Mingəçevir are rated 33 Elo points higher
Elo 1,555 against 1,522. On rating alone Mingəçevir would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Mingəçevir score more
1.71 goals a game over 45 matches for Mingəçevir, against 1.28 over 29 for Şahdağ.
-
Defences are close
Mingəçevir concede 1.02 a game, Şahdağ 1.00.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
49% of Mingəçevir matches, against 41% for Şahdağ. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 29 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Şahdağ@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1554.9
ELO
1522.2
45
ELO · Matches
29
1554.9
Current Team ELO
1522.2
1522.2
Current Opponent ELO
1554.9
32.69
Current ELO Difference
-32.69
0.55
Expected score
0.45
45
History Matches
29
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
53.94
Overperformance
52.07
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
2.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.90
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
0.30
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
2.15
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
29
1.78
PPG
1.52
51.1%
Win rate
41.4%
24.4%
Draw rate
27.6%
24.4%
Loss rate
31.0%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
62.1%
48.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
31.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals 100
22
Matches
15
2.05
PPG
1.40
59.1%
Win rate
40.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
13.6%
Loss rate
40.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
53.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
22
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
1.28
75.6%
Scoring rate
72.4%
48.9%
BTTS rate
44.8%
2.05
Goals for per game
0.93
81.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
54.5%
BTTS rate
40.0%
45
History Matches
29
1.71
Goals Mean
1.28
1.54
Goals Std
1.20
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
72.4%
46.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.0%
28.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.8%
2.05
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.00
62.2%
Conceding rate
58.6%
0.82
Goals against per game
0.93
59.1%
Conceding rate
60.0%
45
History Matches
29
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.04
Conceded Std
0.98
31.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.5%
4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.9%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
29
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.44
6.08
Stability score
1.37
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
29
17
Lead Matches
9
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.85
11
Trailing Matches
8
9.1%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
159.9
Rest days
165.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
17
Long Rest History Matches
11
2.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.04
Portability PPG Std
—
0.08
Portability PPG Range
—
92.90
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.69
PPG0.26
GF0.44
GA0.02
PPG0.65
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.44
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate15.6%
Scored 3+ rate15.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std1.26
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.46
Stability score4.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.35
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate10.5%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-6.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.75
Current Team ELO32.69
Current Opponent ELO-32.69
Current ELO Difference65.39
Expected score0.09
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Mingəçevir
L
Qabala3–0Mingəçevir27 Oct · away
Pick: Qabala 53% · hit W
Xankəndi FK0–1Mingəçevir21 Oct · away
Pick: Mingəçevir 53% · hit L
Mingəçevir1–4Şimal15 Oct · home
Pick: Mingəçevir 67% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Şahdağ
W
MOIK1–9Şahdağ28 Oct · away
Pick: MOIK 48% · missed W
Şahdağ1–0Səbail21 Oct · home
Pick: Səbail 40% · missed L
Xankəndi FK1–0Şahdağ15 Oct · away
Pick: Şahdağ 56% · missed W
Şahdağ6–0Zaqatala7 Oct · home
Pick: Şahdağ 38% · hit W
Şahdağ2–0Karvan9 Sep · home
Pick: Şahdağ 47% · hit About this match
Mingəçevir and Şahdağ meet in Birinci Dasta on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Mingəçevir win 53.7%, draw 25.1%, Şahdağ win 21.2%. The pick is Mingəçevir win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.