ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland

Monaco Home · Elo 1,595
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Nordsjaelland Away · Elo 1,601
Stade Louis II, Monaco Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Monaco win
Monaco winPick
45.6%
Draw
20.8%
FC Nordsjaelland win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.5%
No38.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.1%
Under 2.532.9%

How much we know

Monaco history75 matches
FC Nordsjaelland history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Monaco are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,595 against 1,601. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.73 goals a game over 75 matches for Monaco, against 1.67 over 72 for FC Nordsjaelland.

  • Defences are close

    Monaco concede 1.57 a game, FC Nordsjaelland 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Monaco matches, against 60% for FC Nordsjaelland. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Monaco
FC Nordsjaelland@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.0
ELO
1600.9
75
ELO · Matches
72
1595.0
Current Team ELO
1600.9
1600.9
Current Opponent ELO
1595.0
-5.89
Current ELO Difference
5.89
0.49
Expected score
0.51
75
History Matches
72
0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
54.36
Overperformance
55.76
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
3.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.00
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.70
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
72
1.55
PPG
1.56
44.0%
Win rate
45.8%
22.7%
Draw rate
18.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
36.1%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
65.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
35
1.88
PPG
1.20
55.9%
Win rate
34.3%
20.6%
Draw rate
17.1%
23.5%
Loss rate
48.6%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
34
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.67
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
61.3%
BTTS rate
51.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.31
82.4%
Scoring rate
65.7%
52.9%
BTTS rate
48.6%
—
Goals for per game
3.25
—
Scoring rate
75.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
75
History Matches
72
1.73
Goals Mean
1.67
1.43
Goals Std
1.49
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
48.6%
25.3%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.47
74.7%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.77
61.8%
Conceding rate
80.0%
—
Goals against per game
0.25
—
Conceding rate
25.0%
75
History Matches
72
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.37
Conceded Std
1.37
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
72
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.22
3.16
Stability score
5.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
69
23
Lead Matches
21
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.89
23
Trailing Matches
21
43.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
21.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.20
Rest days
74.42
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
14
2.44
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.21
45
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
20
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
2.25
—
Win rate
75.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
25.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
0
Current Competition Matches
4
—
Current Competition PPG
2.25
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.27
49.25
Portability Score
51.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-5.89
PPG-0.01
GF0.07
GA0.10
PPG0.68
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate2.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-2.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.78
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate14.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches-4
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-2.66
Rest days-0.22
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.23
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO-5.89
Current Opponent ELO5.89
Current ELO Difference-11.78
Expected score-0.02
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Monaco

L
Paris FC3–1Monaco1 Nov · away
Pick: Monaco 43% · missed
D
Monaco1–1Lille25 Oct · home
Pick: Lille 44% · missed
W
Monaco3–0SC Freiburg22 Oct · home
Pick: SC Freiburg 43% · missed
L
Lorient1–0Monaco18 Oct · away
Pick: Monaco 41% · missed
W
CSKA Sofia1–2Monaco15 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia 59% · missed

FC Nordsjaelland

L
FC Nordsjaelland2–3FC Midtjylland1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Nordsjaelland 39% · missed
W
Esbjerg0–1FC Nordsjaelland28 Oct · away
Pick: Esbjerg 40% · missed
D
Silkeborg1–1FC Nordsjaelland25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Nordsjaelland 45% · missed
D
FC Nordsjaelland2–2CSKA Sofia22 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 44% · missed
D
Lyngby3–3FC Nordsjaelland18 Oct · away
Pick: Lyngby 39% · missed

About this match

Monaco and FC Nordsjaelland meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Louis II, Monaco. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Monaco win 45.6%, draw 20.8%, FC Nordsjaelland win 33.6%. The pick is Monaco win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.1%. Both teams to score: 61.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.