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CONCACAF Nations League World Play-In Final 2025

Montserrat vs Nicaragua

Montserrat Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nicaragua Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nicaragua win
Montserrat win
34.5%
Draw
26.4%
Nicaragua winPick
39.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.1%
Under 2.562.9%

How much we know

Montserrat history2 matches
Nicaragua history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Nicaragua are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Montserrat are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,453. On rating alone Montserrat would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.50 goals a game over 2 matches for Montserrat, against 0.50 over 14 for Nicaragua.

  • Montserrat concede fewer

    Montserrat concede 1.50 a game, Nicaragua 1.79.

  • Montserrat games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Montserrat matches, against 36% for Nicaragua. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Montserrat
Nicaragua@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.0
ELO
1453.1
2
ELO · Matches
14
1499.0
Current Team ELO
1453.1
1453.1
Current Opponent ELO
1499.0
45.95
Current ELO Difference
-45.95
0.57
Expected score
0.43
2
History Matches
14
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.19
49.76
Overperformance
42.12
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.80
0.50
Goals for per game
0.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.50
0.50
Goals for per game
0.50
1.50
Goals against per game
2.20
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
14
1.50
PPG
0.64
50.0%
Win rate
14.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
50.0%
Loss rate
64.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
9
3.00
PPG
0.22
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
0.0%
Loss rate
77.8%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
1
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.50
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
42.9%
0.0%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2
History Matches
14
0.50
Goals Mean
0.50
0.50
Goals Std
0.63
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
42.9%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
7.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
1.79
50.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.22
0.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
2
History Matches
14
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.50
Conceded Std
1.37
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.7%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
14
0.63
Result entropy
0.81
2.00
Goal Difference Std
1.67
36.91
Stability score
18.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
14
1
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.21
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
521.0
Rest days
161.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
6
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
0
Long Rest History Matches
7
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.27
—
Portability PPG Range
0.54
—
Portability Score
64.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.95
PPG0.86
GF0.00
GA-0.29
PPG2.78
PPG0.70
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate28.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate88.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.67
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-2.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score18.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days359.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches-7
Current Team ELO45.95
Current Opponent ELO-45.95
Current ELO Difference91.89
Expected score0.13
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance7.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Montserrat

No earlier results with our pick yet

Nicaragua

L
Nicaragua1–2Dominican Republic5 Oct · home
Pick: Nicaragua 39% · missed
L
Curaçao6–1Nicaragua28 Sep · away
Pick: Curaçao 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Montserrat and Nicaragua meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Montserrat win 34.5%, draw 26.4%, Nicaragua win 39.1%. The pick is Nicaragua win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.1%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.