Guatemala vs Canada
Match result probability Model pick: Canada win
Guatemala win
27.2%
Draw
24.2%
Canada winPick
48.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.1%
No48.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%
How much we know
Guatemala history17 matches
Canada history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Canada
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 17 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 01:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 02:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Canada are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Canada are rated 59 Elo points higher
Elo 1,544 against 1,485. On rating alone Canada would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Canada score more
1.18 goals a game over 17 matches for Guatemala, against 1.70 over 20 for Canada.
-
Canada concede fewer
Guatemala concede 1.71 a game, Canada 0.75.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
41% of Guatemala matches, against 40% for Canada. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 5 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Canada@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1485.1
ELO
1544.3
17
ELO · Matches
20
1485.1
Current Team ELO
1544.3
1544.3
Current Opponent ELO
1485.1
-59.21
Current ELO Difference
59.21
0.42
Expected score
0.58
17
History Matches
20
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.16
46.78
Overperformance
58.25
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
1.50
2.10
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals 90
17
Matches
20
1.12
PPG
1.85
29.4%
Win rate
50.0%
23.5%
Draw rate
35.0%
47.1%
Loss rate
15.0%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals 100
6
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.25
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
6
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.70
70.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
52.9%
BTTS rate
35.0%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
17
History Matches
20
1.18
Goals Mean
1.70
1.10
Goals Std
1.76
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.71
Goals against per game
0.75
82.4%
Conceding rate
45.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.50
83.3%
Conceding rate
25.0%
17
History Matches
20
1.71
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.67
Conceded Std
0.94
35.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
29.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.0%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
17
History Matches
20
0.96
Result entropy
0.91
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.16
3.96
Stability score
9.11
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
20
3
Lead Matches
7
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.81
7
Trailing Matches
3
28.6%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
159.3
Rest days
132.4
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
6
Normal Rest History Matches
10
2.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
9
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.57
Portability PPG Range
0.93
41.96
Portability Score
59.76
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
17
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-59.21
PPG-0.73
GF-0.52
GA0.96
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.58
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.52
Goals Std-0.67
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.96
Conceded Std0.73
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Conceded 2+ rate10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate24.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.88
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-5.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.38
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.64
Portability Score-17.80
Rest days26.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.57
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.58
Current Team ELO-59.21
Current Opponent ELO59.21
Current ELO Difference-118.4
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-11.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Guatemala and Canada meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 02:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Guatemala win 27.2%, draw 24.2%, Canada win 48.6%. The pick is Canada win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.3%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.