ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 11 2026

Neftochimic Burgas vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Neftochimic Burgas Home · Elo 1,550
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maritsa Plovdiv Away · Elo 1,578
efbet Arena, Burgas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:13 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neftochimic Burgas win
Neftochimic Burgas winPick
44.5%
Draw
25.0%
Maritsa Plovdiv win
30.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Neftochimic Burgas history38 matches
Maritsa Plovdiv history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 4 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:13 UTC
  2. Re-published 12 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Neftochimic Burgas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maritsa Plovdiv are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,578 against 1,550. On rating alone Maritsa Plovdiv would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Maritsa Plovdiv score far more

    1.37 goals a game over 38 matches for Neftochimic Burgas, against 2.26 over 54 for Maritsa Plovdiv.

  • Maritsa Plovdiv concede fewer

    Neftochimic Burgas concede 1.08 a game, Maritsa Plovdiv 0.96.

  • Maritsa Plovdiv games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Neftochimic Burgas matches, against 63% for Maritsa Plovdiv. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Neftochimic Burgas
Maritsa Plovdiv
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1549.7
ELO
1578.3
38
ELO · Matches
54
1549.7
Current Team ELO
1578.3
1578.3
Current Opponent ELO
1549.7
-28.54
Current ELO Difference
28.54
0.46
Expected score
0.54
38
History Matches
54
0.07
Residual Mean
0.07
54.50
Overperformance
55.01
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.58
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
54
1.68
PPG
2.06
47.4%
Win rate
63.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
26.3%
Loss rate
20.4%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
27
1.70
PPG
1.67
45.0%
Win rate
48.1%
35.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
20.0%
Loss rate
29.6%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
20
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
2.26
71.1%
Scoring rate
81.5%
44.7%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.48
75.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
45.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
38
History Matches
54
1.37
Goals Mean
2.26
1.11
Goals Std
1.95
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
61.1%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
31.5%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
0.96
65.8%
Conceding rate
59.3%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.15
65.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
38
History Matches
54
1.08
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.06
Conceded Std
1.05
26.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
54
0.96
Result entropy
0.83
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.50
3.83
Stability score
16.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
20
0
Lead Matches
5
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
4
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.10
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.90
Rest days
73.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.18
9
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.95
0.43
Portability PPG Range
2.23
69.86
Portability Score
34.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points Retention
ELO-28.54
PPG-0.37
GF-0.89
GA0.12
PPG1.00
PPG0.03
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.89
Goals Std-0.84
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.39
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.69
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.71
Stability score-12.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.55
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-5
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.73
Portability PPG Range-1.80
Portability Score35.39
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-28.54
Current Opponent ELO28.54
Current ELO Difference-57.08
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Neftochimic Burgas

D
Neftochimic Burgas0–0Rodopa Smolyan31 Oct · home
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 38% · missed
W
Spartak Plovdiv0–1Neftochimic Burgas24 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 62% · missed
W
Neftochimic Burgas2–0Sayana Haskovo21 Oct · home
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 38% · missed
L
Neftochimic Burgas0–4CSKA 194816 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA 1948 41% · hit
D
Neftochimic Burgas1–1Sportist Svoge4 Oct · home
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 37% · missed

Maritsa Plovdiv

W
Sekirovo Rakovski0–3Maritsa Plovdiv31 Oct · away
Pick: Sekirovo Rakovski 46% · missed
W
Maritsa Plovdiv2–1Botev Plovdiv II24 Oct · home
Pick: Maritsa Plovdiv 60% · hit
L
Rozova dolina2–0Maritsa Plovdiv29 Aug · away
Pick: Rozova dolina 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Neftochimic Burgas and Maritsa Plovdiv meet in Third League - Southeast on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at efbet Arena, Burgas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:13 UTC: Neftochimic Burgas win 44.5%, draw 25.0%, Maritsa Plovdiv win 30.5%. The pick is Neftochimic Burgas win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.