New Zealand vs India
Match result probability Model pick: India win
New Zealand win
34.2%
Draw
23.1%
India winPick
42.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.8%
No44.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%
How much we know
New Zealand history16 matches
India history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours India
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 05:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 06:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why India are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
India are rated 33 Elo points higher
Elo 1,476 against 1,443. On rating alone India would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
New Zealand score far more
1.38 goals a game over 16 matches for New Zealand, against 0.80 over 15 for India.
-
India concede fewer
New Zealand concede 1.88 a game, India 1.27.
-
New Zealand games more often go over 2.5 goals
63% of New Zealand matches, against 40% for India. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 27 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
India@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1443.0
ELO
1476.4
16
ELO · Matches
15
1443.0
Current Team ELO
1476.4
1476.4
Current Opponent ELO
1443.0
-33.33
Current ELO Difference
33.33
0.45
Expected score
0.55
16
History Matches
15
-0.19
Residual Mean
-0.11
41.67
Overperformance
45.38
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.70
1.00
Goals for per game
0.70
2.30
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals 90
16
Matches
15
0.69
PPG
0.93
18.8%
Win rate
20.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
68.8%
Loss rate
46.7%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
10
0.86
PPG
0.70
28.6%
Win rate
10.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
71.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
3.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
7
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.38
Goals for per game
0.80
62.5%
Scoring rate
53.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
2.14
Goals for per game
0.60
85.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.67
0.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
16
History Matches
15
1.38
Goals Mean
0.80
1.83
Goals Std
0.91
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
53.3%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
0.60
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.88
Goals against per game
1.27
87.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.29
Goals against per game
1.30
85.7%
Conceding rate
90.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
16
History Matches
15
1.88
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.32
Conceded Std
0.93
56.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
2.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
16
History Matches
15
0.76
Result entropy
0.95
2.69
Goal Difference Std
1.45
24.32
Stability score
4.99
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
16
Eligible Matches
15
4
Lead Matches
4
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.83
6
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
1.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
138.1
Rest days
155.6
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
6
Normal Rest History Matches
5
0.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.60
7
Long Rest History Matches
7
0.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.19
Portability PPG Range
0.92
84.00
Portability Score
57.16
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
16
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-33.33
PPG-0.25
GF0.58
GA0.61
PPG-0.33
PPG0.16
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.92
Scored 1+ rate9.2%
Scored 2+ rate5.0%
Scored 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate22.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.19
Goal Difference Std1.24
Stability score19.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.17
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score26.84
Rest days-17.50
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Current Team ELO-33.33
Current Opponent ELO33.33
Current ELO Difference-66.65
Expected score-0.10
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-3.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
New Zealand
L
Japan2–1New Zealand5 Oct · away
Pick: Japan 67% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
India
L
India1–6Uruguay6 Oct · home
Pick: Uruguay 35% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
New Zealand and India meet in Friendlies on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: New Zealand win 34.2%, draw 23.1%, India win 42.7%. The pick is India win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.