Newmarket vs Oxford City
Match result probability Model pick: Oxford City win
Newmarket win
17.1%
Draw
22.4%
Oxford City winPick
60.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.6%
No41.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%
How much we know
Newmarket history2 matches
Oxford City history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Oxford City
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.5%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Oxford City are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Oxford City are rated 28 Elo points higher
Elo 1,537 against 1,509. On rating alone Oxford City would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Newmarket score more
2.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Newmarket, against 1.30 over 79 for Oxford City.
-
Defences are close
Newmarket concede 1.50 a game, Oxford City 1.46.
-
Newmarket games more often go over 2.5 goals
100% of Newmarket matches, against 57% for Oxford City. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oxford City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1509.4
ELO
1537.5
2
ELO · Matches
79
1509.4
Current Team ELO
1537.5
1537.5
Current Opponent ELO
1509.4
-28.12
Current ELO Difference
28.12
0.46
Expected score
0.54
2
History Matches
79
0.23
Residual Mean
0.03
52.12
Overperformance
52.14
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals 160
2
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.70
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals 90
2
Matches
79
2.00
PPG
1.23
50.0%
Win rate
32.9%
50.0%
Draw rate
24.1%
0.0%
Loss rate
43.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
39
1.00
PPG
1.03
0.0%
Win rate
23.1%
100.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
43.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
1
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
100.0%
Scoring rate
72.2%
100.0%
BTTS rate
57.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.15
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
64.1%
2
History Matches
79
2.00
Goals Mean
1.30
0.00
Goals Std
1.25
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.9%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.2%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
1.46
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.49
100.0%
Conceding rate
87.2%
2
History Matches
79
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.46
0.50
Conceded Std
1.34
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
2
History Matches
79
0.63
Result entropy
0.98
0.50
Goal Difference Std
1.96
36.91
Stability score
2.48
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
1
Eligible Matches
79
1
Lead Matches
25
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.72
0
Trailing Matches
25
—
Non-loss rate
16.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
2.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
518.3
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
68
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
1
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
8
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.60
—
Portability PPG Range
1.50
—
Portability Score
45.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
2
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-28.12
PPG0.77
GF0.70
GA0.04
PPG-0.03
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-77
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-38
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-77
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std-1.25
Scored 1+ rate27.8%
Scored 2+ rate67.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.00
History Matches-77
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.84
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-77
Result entropy-0.34
Goal Difference Std-1.46
Stability score34.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches-78
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate36.0%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-25
Halftime Coverage Matches-78
First Half Goals For Mean1.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.89
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-7
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days434.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-68
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-28.12
Current Opponent ELO28.12
Current ELO Difference-56.24
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-77
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Newmarket
W
Faversham Town0–1Newmarket24 Oct · away
Pick: Faversham Town 65% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Oxford City
L
Oxford City2–4Leicester6 Nov · home
Pick: Oxford City 45% · missed L
Oxford City1–3South Shields31 Oct · home
Pick: Oxford City 40% · missed W
Oxford City3–0Merthyr Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Oxford City 53% · hit D
Marine1–1Oxford City24 Oct · away
Pick: Oxford City 37% · missed W
Torquay0–1Oxford City17 Oct · away
Pick: Torquay 44% · missed About this match
Newmarket and Oxford City meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Newmarket win 17.1%, draw 22.4%, Oxford City win 60.5%. The pick is Oxford City win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.