Notch vs Flora
What we said before kickoff Result: Notch win
Notch winPick Result
52.3%
Draw
19.1%
Flora win
28.6%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickNotch win · 52.3%
What happenedNotch win · we gave it 52.3%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 62.8%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 59.2%
What happenedYes · 2–1
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Notch win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
52%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.9
on average A pick at 52% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes59.2%
No40.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%
How much we know
Notch history18 matches
Flora history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Kickoff7 Nov · 20:30 UTC
- Full time: 2–1All three of our picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.8 Nov · 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Notch are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Notch are rated 43 Elo points higher
Elo 1,460 against 1,417. On rating alone Notch would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.17 goals a game over 18 matches for Notch, against 1.25 over 20 for Flora.
-
Notch concede fewer
Notch concede 1.44 a game, Flora 2.40.
-
Flora games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Notch matches, against 70% for Flora. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 15 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1460.4
ELO
1416.9
18
ELO · Matches
20
1460.4
Current Team ELO
1416.9
1416.9
Current Opponent ELO
1460.4
43.45
Current ELO Difference
-43.45
0.56
Expected score
0.44
18
History Matches
20
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.20
45.22
Overperformance
40.16
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
3.00
Goals against per game
3.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
0.80
0.70
Goals for per game
1.70
1.90
Goals against per game
2.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals 90
18
Matches
20
1.06
PPG
0.65
22.2%
Win rate
15.0%
38.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
38.9%
Loss rate
65.0%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
10
Matches
9
1.10
PPG
0.89
20.0%
Win rate
22.2%
50.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
30.0%
Loss rate
55.6%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
10
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.25
72.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
65.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.67
70.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
18
History Matches
20
1.17
Goals Mean
1.25
0.96
Goals Std
1.04
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.0%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.44
Goals against per game
2.40
66.7%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.30
Goals against per game
2.33
60.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
18
History Matches
20
1.44
Conceded Mean
2.40
1.38
Conceded Std
1.62
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
70.0%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
55.0%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
2.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
18
History Matches
20
0.97
Result entropy
0.81
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.77
2.71
Stability score
19.31
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
13
Eligible Matches
13
1
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.33
5
Trailing Matches
7
40.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.38
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.38
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
198.0
Rest days
176.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
5
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.58
Portability PPG Range
0.45
38.69
Portability Score
68.85
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
18
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.45
PPG0.41
GF-0.08
GA-0.96
PPG0.21
PPG0.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.96
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.44
Venue Conceded Mean-1.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-16.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate100.0%
Lead Points Retention0.67
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate25.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range1.13
Portability Score-30.16
Rest days21.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO43.45
Current Opponent ELO-43.45
Current ELO Difference86.91
Expected score0.12
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance5.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Notch
D
Notch2–2Robin Hood31 Oct · home
Pick: Robin Hood 62% · missed D
Notch1–1Voorwaarts24 Oct · home
Pick: Voorwaarts 42% · missed W
Notch4–0PVV17 Oct · home
Pick: Notch 47% · hit D
Leo Victor0–0Notch15 Oct · away
Pick: Leo Victor 52% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Flora
L
Flora1–2Leo Victor28 Oct · home
Pick: Leo Victor 57% · hit D
Flora0–0Broki24 Oct · home
Pick: Broki 56% · missed L
Flora0–1Transvaal17 Oct · home
Pick: Transvaal 53% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Notch and Flora finished 2–1 in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026. It was 2–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC, before kickoff: Notch win 52.3%, draw 19.1%, Flora win 28.6%. All three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.