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Segunda División Spain Round 14 2026

Oviedo vs Girona

Oviedo Home · Elo 1,462
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Girona Away · Elo 1,470
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Girona win
Oviedo win
34.3%
Draw
30.6%
Girona winPick
35.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.2%
Under 2.558.8%

How much we know

Oviedo history72 matches
Girona history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Girona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,462 against 1,470. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Girona score more

    0.90 goals a game over 72 matches for Oviedo, against 1.11 over 71 for Girona.

  • Oviedo concede fewer

    Oviedo concede 1.19 a game, Girona 1.58.

  • Girona games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Oviedo matches, against 52% for Girona. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oviedo
Girona@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.2
ELO
1469.7
72
ELO · Matches
71
1462.2
Current Team ELO
1469.7
1469.7
Current Opponent ELO
1462.2
-7.53
Current ELO Difference
7.53
0.49
Expected score
0.51
72
History Matches
71
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
48.44
Overperformance
48.61
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
71
1.19
PPG
0.97
29.2%
Win rate
21.1%
31.9%
Draw rate
33.8%
38.9%
Loss rate
45.1%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.3%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.9%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
35
1.50
PPG
0.86
39.5%
Win rate
17.1%
31.6%
Draw rate
34.3%
28.9%
Loss rate
48.6%
47.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
31.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
7.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
38
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.90
Goals for per game
1.11
58.3%
Scoring rate
76.1%
40.3%
BTTS rate
64.8%
0.89
Goals for per game
1.14
63.2%
Scoring rate
80.0%
34.2%
BTTS rate
71.4%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
71
0.90
Goals Mean
1.11
0.97
Goals Std
0.93
58.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
22.2%
Scored 2+ rate
25.4%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.0%
0.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.58
68.1%
Conceding rate
85.9%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Conceding rate
91.4%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
71
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.10
Conceded Std
1.15
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.3%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.1%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
71
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.67
Stability score
4.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
71
17
Lead Matches
20
58.8%
Lead Win Rate
55.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.68
22
Trailing Matches
24
18.2%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.21
Rest days
85.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
28
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.11
Portability PPG Range
1.03
53.25
Portability Score
56.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-7.53
PPG0.22
GF-0.21
GA-0.38
PPG0.00
PPG0.64
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate17.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate41.4%
Failed-to-score rate16.8%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-3.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.59
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate3.8%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-3.73
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO-7.53
Current Opponent ELO7.53
Current ELO Difference-15.06
Expected score-0.02
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oviedo

W
Cadiz1–2Oviedo7 Nov · away
Pick: Cadiz 45% · missed
L
Oviedo2–3Las Palmas2 Nov · home
Pick: Las Palmas 43% · hit
D
Almeria2–2Oviedo24 Oct · away
Pick: Almeria 60% · missed
W
AD Ceuta FC1–2Oviedo18 Oct · away
Pick: Oviedo 38% · hit
W
Oviedo3–1Eibar12 Oct · home
Pick: Oviedo 34% · hit

Girona

L
Real Sociedad II1–0Girona31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Sociedad II 49% · hit
W
Cuarte0–2Girona27 Oct · away
Pick: Cuarte 40% · missed
W
Girona5–1Celta de Vigo II24 Oct · home
Pick: Celta de Vigo II 44% · missed
W
Girona2–0FC Andorra18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Andorra 42% · missed
D
Tenerife1–1Girona12 Oct · away
Pick: Tenerife 61% · missed

About this match

Oviedo and Girona meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Oviedo win 34.3%, draw 30.6%, Girona win 35.1%. The pick is Girona win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.2%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.