Almeria vs FC Andorra
Match result probability Model pick: Almeria win
Almeria winPick
42.1%
Draw
26.1%
FC Andorra win
31.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.0%
No45.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%
How much we know
Almeria history79 matches
FC Andorra history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Almeria
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Almeria are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Almeria are rated 46 Elo points higher
Elo 1,579 against 1,533. On rating alone Almeria would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Almeria score more
1.70 goals a game over 79 matches for Almeria, against 1.49 over 74 for FC Andorra.
-
FC Andorra concede fewer
Almeria concede 1.35 a game, FC Andorra 1.15.
-
Almeria games more often go over 2.5 goals
61% of Almeria matches, against 46% for FC Andorra. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Andorra@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1579.2
ELO
1532.9
79
ELO · Matches
74
1579.2
Current Team ELO
1532.9
1532.9
Current Opponent ELO
1579.2
46.25
Current ELO Difference
-46.25
0.57
Expected score
0.43
79
History Matches
74
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.52
Overperformance
51.67
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals 90
79
Matches
74
1.57
PPG
1.55
45.6%
Win rate
43.2%
20.3%
Draw rate
25.7%
34.2%
Loss rate
31.1%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.9%
60.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
37
2.16
PPG
1.41
67.6%
Win rate
40.5%
13.5%
Draw rate
18.9%
18.9%
Loss rate
40.5%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
75.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
37
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.70
Goals for per game
1.49
84.8%
Scoring rate
77.0%
63.3%
BTTS rate
54.1%
2.30
Goals for per game
1.49
97.3%
Scoring rate
78.4%
70.3%
BTTS rate
56.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
3.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
79
History Matches
74
1.70
Goals Mean
1.49
1.28
Goals Std
1.42
84.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.0%
45.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.1%
25.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
2.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.49
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.15
73.4%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.43
70.3%
Conceding rate
75.7%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
79
History Matches
74
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.11
Conceded Std
1.11
44.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.7%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
2.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
2.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
79
History Matches
74
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.77
4.56
Stability score
2.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
79
Eligible Matches
74
28
Lead Matches
19
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.86
16
Trailing Matches
19
18.8%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.92
Rest days
82.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.44
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
40
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.51
29
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.74
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.60
Portability PPG Range
1.30
68.30
Portability Score
50.04
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
79
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO46.25
PPG0.02
GF0.21
GA0.21
PPG0.00
PPG0.76
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate10.4%
Scored 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score2.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate1.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score18.26
Rest days0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.78
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO46.25
Current Opponent ELO-46.25
Current ELO Difference92.50
Expected score0.13
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Almeria
D
Eibar1–1Almeria31 Oct · away
Pick: Almeria 41% · missed D
Almeria2–2Oviedo24 Oct · home
Pick: Almeria 60% · missed W
Real Sociedad II2–4Almeria17 Oct · away
Pick: Almeria 41% · hit L
Sabadell1–0Almeria29 Aug · away
Pick: Almeria 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
FC Andorra
W
Varea0–3FC Andorra29 Oct · away
Pick: FC Andorra 38% · hit L
FC Andorra2–3Burgos26 Oct · home
Pick: FC Andorra 47% · missed L
Girona2–0FC Andorra18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Andorra 42% · missed L
FC Andorra0–1Eibar30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Andorra 51% · missed L
Celta de Vigo II4–2FC Andorra24 Aug · away
Pick: FC Andorra 46% · missed About this match
Almeria and FC Andorra meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Almeria win 42.1%, draw 26.1%, FC Andorra win 31.7%. The pick is Almeria win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.