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Segunda División Spain Round 14 2026

Mallorca vs Cordoba

Mallorca Home · Elo 1,537
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cordoba Away · Elo 1,520
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mallorca win
Mallorca winPick
36.8%
Draw
30.9%
Cordoba win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Mallorca history68 matches
Cordoba history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Mallorca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,537 against 1,520. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 68 matches for Mallorca, against 1.36 over 72 for Cordoba.

  • Mallorca concede fewer

    Mallorca concede 1.24 a game, Cordoba 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Mallorca matches, against 57% for Cordoba. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mallorca
Cordoba@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.6
ELO
1519.6
68
ELO · Matches
72
1536.6
Current Team ELO
1519.6
1519.6
Current Opponent ELO
1536.6
17.07
Current ELO Difference
-17.07
0.52
Expected score
0.48
68
History Matches
72
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
52.36
Overperformance
51.16
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
72
1.34
PPG
1.33
36.8%
Win rate
34.7%
23.5%
Draw rate
29.2%
39.7%
Loss rate
36.1%
80.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
16.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
36
1.91
PPG
1.39
54.3%
Win rate
36.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
30.6%
17.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.36
75.0%
Scoring rate
80.6%
55.9%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.36
91.4%
Scoring rate
83.3%
65.7%
BTTS rate
72.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
72
1.29
Goals Mean
1.36
1.07
Goals Std
1.03
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
35.3%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
16.2%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.49
76.5%
Conceding rate
79.2%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.50
71.4%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
72
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.49
0.91
Conceded Std
1.17
38.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.1%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
8.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
8.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
72
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.51
2.14
Stability score
0.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
72
21
Lead Matches
15
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.80
22
Trailing Matches
20
27.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.92
Rest days
84.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
40
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
25
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.94
Portability PPG Range
1.20
39.58
Portability Score
50.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO17.07
PPG0.00
GF-0.07
GA-0.25
PPG0.00
PPG0.53
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score1.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate2.3%
Trailing Win Rate8.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.74
Portability Score-11.23
Rest days-3.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO17.07
Current Opponent ELO-17.07
Current ELO Difference34.15
Expected score0.05
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mallorca

W
Mallorca2–1Cadiz2 Nov · home
Pick: Mallorca 48% · hit
D
Leganes1–1Mallorca24 Oct · away
Pick: Leganes 50% · missed
D
Eibar1–1Mallorca17 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar 45% · missed
D
Girona0–0Mallorca4 Oct · away
Pick: Girona 41% · missed
W
Mallorca3–0AD Ceuta FC30 Aug · home
Pick: Mallorca 53% · hit

Cordoba

W
Cordoba3–0AD Ceuta FC7 Nov · home
Pick: Cordoba 53% · hit
D
Celta de Vigo II2–2Cordoba31 Oct · away
Pick: Celta de Vigo II 47% · missed
L
Atlético Paso3–1Cordoba27 Oct · away
Pick: Cordoba 41% · missed
W
Cordoba2–0Eibar24 Oct · home
Pick: Cordoba 43% · hit
W
Leganes0–1Cordoba16 Oct · away
Pick: Leganes 48% · missed

About this match

Mallorca and Cordoba meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Mallorca win 36.8%, draw 30.9%, Cordoba win 32.3%. The pick is Mallorca win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.