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Segunda División Spain Round 14 2026

Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon

Real Sociedad II Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sporting Gijon Away · Elo 1,531
Estadio Zubieta, San Sebastian Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting Gijon win
Real Sociedad II win
36.4%
Draw
24.2%
Sporting Gijon winPick
39.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

Real Sociedad II history78 matches
Sporting Gijon history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:15 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Sporting Gijon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sporting Gijon are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,469. On rating alone Sporting Gijon would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Sporting Gijon score more

    1.19 goals a game over 78 matches for Real Sociedad II, against 1.45 over 76 for Sporting Gijon.

  • Defences are close

    Real Sociedad II concede 1.19 a game, Sporting Gijon 1.29.

  • Sporting Gijon games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Real Sociedad II matches, against 51% for Sporting Gijon. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Sociedad II
Sporting Gijon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1468.5
ELO
1530.5
78
ELO · Matches
76
1468.5
Current Team ELO
1530.5
1530.5
Current Opponent ELO
1468.5
-62.00
Current ELO Difference
62.00
0.41
Expected score
0.59
78
History Matches
76
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.39
Overperformance
51.35
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
76
1.32
PPG
1.46
35.9%
Win rate
42.1%
24.4%
Draw rate
19.7%
39.7%
Loss rate
38.2%
62.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
21.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
39
1.31
PPG
1.13
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
30.8%
Draw rate
12.8%
35.9%
Loss rate
53.8%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
43.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
39
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.45
65.4%
Scoring rate
77.6%
43.6%
BTTS rate
56.6%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.21
66.7%
Scoring rate
71.8%
46.2%
BTTS rate
56.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
78
History Matches
76
1.19
Goals Mean
1.45
1.13
Goals Std
1.17
65.4%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
35.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
19.7%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.29
69.2%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.46
71.8%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
78
History Matches
76
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.17
Conceded Std
1.16
32.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
76
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.56
1.83
Stability score
4.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
76
20
Lead Matches
24
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.78
17
Trailing Matches
23
0.0%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.93
Rest days
82.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
29
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.57
Portability PPG Range
0.80
48.51
Portability Score
58.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-62.00
PPG-0.14
GF-0.26
GA-0.10
PPG-0.50
PPG0.18
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-2.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.77
Portability Score-10.29
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-62.00
Current Opponent ELO62.00
Current ELO Difference-124.0
Expected score-0.18
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Sociedad II

W
Real Sociedad II1–0Girona31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Sociedad II 49% · hit
L
Las Palmas1–0Real Sociedad II24 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas 56% · hit
L
Real Sociedad II2–4Almeria17 Oct · home
Pick: Almeria 41% · hit
L
Real Sociedad II2–3Granada CF4 Oct · home
Pick: Granada CF 40% · hit
D
Burgos2–2Real Sociedad II31 Aug · away
Pick: Burgos 43% · missed

Sporting Gijon

W
AD Ceuta FC0–2Sporting Gijon1 Nov · away
Pick: Sporting Gijon 41% · hit
W
Guijuelo1–3Sporting Gijon29 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Gijon 43% · hit
L
Castellón4–0Sporting Gijon25 Oct · away
Pick: Castellón 41% · hit
W
Sporting Gijon2–1Albacete17 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijon 49% · hit
W
Sporting Gijon3–2Celta de Vigo II4 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijon 40% · hit

About this match

Real Sociedad II and Sporting Gijon meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Zubieta, San Sebastian. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Real Sociedad II win 36.4%, draw 24.2%, Sporting Gijon win 39.5%. The pick is Sporting Gijon win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.5%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.